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"019dd956-9610-7038-a580-6ef34d95f742", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Limited availability increases perceived value - time limits and exclusivity", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "block", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "019ddf4e-fd3f-73db-ad31-e8aefb795594", "evidence": "'The Time Is Now' urgency", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 78, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-30 16:53:06.883135+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 5, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Peer gap chart", "slug": "peer-gap", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "canonId": "019dd9e1-54f1-775a-94a1-d5cf3bb75abf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8653-7748-9050-807f067196c3", "description": "A single visual that benchmarks the target against its best-in-class peers on\na single quantitative KPI — and shows the target losing. The gap is the\npunchline.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "ad47f0be-e670-4caa-a9c4-d12a065b2fac", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:49.865912+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It's the **most credible claim in the deck** because it's arithmetic, not\n opinion.\n- It's immediately **actionable** — close this gap and value accrues.\n- It **pre-empts the \"context is different\" defence** by pitting the target\n against direct peers in the same category.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Sum of parts", "slug": "sum-of-parts", "status": "active", "bestFor": "For breakup / spin-off theses", "canonId": "019dd9e1-51e5-73ad-9d1e-e77d4afe3125", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-9ecd-71db-8fa1-5f5eff36697f", "description": "You break the target into its constituent businesses or asset classes, value\neach separately against its own peer set, and show that the total is\nmaterially greater than the current market capitalisation. The \"gap\" is the\nconglomerate discount — or worse, accounting opacity hiding a crown-jewel\nasset.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "8f9c4fb4-b0bc-440f-8cf5-c52ca9fcd275", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "For breakup / spin-off theses", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:49.865912+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It forces the market to confront **mismatched valuation multiples**:\n \"this company trades like X but owns Y, which trades at", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Peer gap chart", "slug": "peer-gap", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "canonId": "019dd9e1-54f1-775a-94a1-d5cf3bb75abf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8653-7748-9050-807f067196c3", "description": "A single visual that benchmarks the target against its best-in-class peers on\na single quantitative KPI — and shows the target losing. The gap is the\npunchline.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "019ddf4e-f866-758e-bd5c-ddbad0c2b4f5", "evidence": "Indexed peer-comparison line chart", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "confidence": 92, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-30 16:53:06.883135+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 1, "whyItWorks": "- It's the **most credible claim in the deck** because it's arithmetic, not\n opinion.\n- It's immediately **actionable** — close this gap and value accrues.\n- It **pre-empts the \"context is different\" defence** by pitting the target\n against direct peers in the same category.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Precedent transaction", "slug": "precedent-transaction", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-554c-708e-8e19-f6bee3d51b69", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-9e2b-7165-a5f9-f94a9758ce38", "description": "You cite a comparable historical transformation — a peer that did\nexactly what you're proposing, with documented outcome. The implicit\nargument: \"this isn't a hypothesis, it's a replication\".\n\nIt is the empirical anchor that makes every other pattern credible. A\npeer-gap chart shows the gap; a sum-of-parts shows the math; a\nprecedent transaction shows the path actually works.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "019ddf4e-fa8e-7608-8b8d-ad178b8b140e", "evidence": "Callout: 'monetize its power in-line with recent precedent transactions'", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 85, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-30 16:53:06.883135+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 3, "whyItWorks": "- **It converts speculation into pattern-matching.** \"If you do X, Y\n will happen\" becomes \"When [comparable] did X, Y happened, and Y was\n worth [$", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Sum of parts", "slug": "sum-of-parts", "status": "active", "bestFor": "For breakup / spin-off theses", "canonId": "019dd9e1-51e5-73ad-9d1e-e77d4afe3125", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-9ecd-71db-8fa1-5f5eff36697f", "description": "You break the target into its constituent businesses or asset classes, value\neach separately against its own peer set, and show that the total is\nmaterially greater than the current market capitalisation. The \"gap\" is the\nconglomerate discount — or worse, accounting opacity hiding a crown-jewel\nasset.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "019ddf4e-fa5f-728d-a1f7-4a8f15537380", "evidence": "Slide type sop_buildup; computes AI/HPC piece", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "For breakup / spin-off theses", "confidence": 88, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-30 16:53:06.883135+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 3, "whyItWorks": "- It forces the market to confront **mismatched valuation multiples**:\n \"this company trades like X but owns Y, which trades at", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Governance critique", "slug": "governance", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-53fb-702c-826c-3a07bb25c0a2", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8473-75a9-8059-6e9588007616", "description": "You attack the **board** rather than the operator. The thesis: this company\nis mis-governed — directors lack independence, the board has rubber-stamped\nvalue-destroying decisions, executive compensation is decoupled from\nperformance, or the board structure itself entrenches underperformance.\nReplace the directors and the operator either improves or is replaced too.\n\nThis is the only pattern that is **uniquely activist** (short-sellers\nrarely use it — they short the equity, not the people).", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "019ddf4e-fbd1-75ba-aae0-11bb742173a2", "evidence": "Qualitative commentary on governance and operational improvements", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 75, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-30 16:53:06.883135+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 4, "whyItWorks": "- **It scales the surface area of accountability.** Where villain-naming\n targets one CEO, governance critique targets 7–11 directors\n collectively, with documented votes and committee assignments.\n- **Proxy advisors (ISS, Glass Lewis) speak this language fluently.**\n A governance-framed thesis converts more easily into proxy support.\n- **It survives CEO transitions.** If you attack the operator and they\n resign before the vote, the campaign fi", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Sum of parts", "slug": "sum-of-parts", "status": "active", "bestFor": "For breakup / spin-off theses", "canonId": "019dd9e1-51e5-73ad-9d1e-e77d4afe3125", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-9ecd-71db-8fa1-5f5eff36697f", "description": "You break the target into its constituent businesses or asset classes, value\neach separately against its own peer set, and show that the total is\nmaterially greater than the current market capitalisation. The \"gap\" is the\nconglomerate discount — or worse, accounting opacity hiding a crown-jewel\nasset.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "019ddf4e-fb76-75e4-a530-de3785027a49", "evidence": "Equity value table extends SOP build", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "For breakup / spin-off theses", "confidence": 86, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-30 16:53:06.883135+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 4, "whyItWorks": "- It forces the market to confront **mismatched valuation multiples**:\n \"this company trades like X but owns Y, which trades at", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Before/after framing", "slug": "before-after-framing", "status": "active", "bestFor": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "canonId": "019dd9e1-528b-72ec-a563-e5dcb9410f67", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-80bf-72e9-980b-ccd1c0cd3488", "description": "You visualise two futures side by side: the trajectory the target is on\ntoday, and the trajectory under your proposed intervention. The reader\nhas to see the delta to feel the stakes.\n\nIt's the rhetorical cousin of the peer-gap — same visual grammar\n(comparison), but across **time** instead of across peers.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "019ddf4e-fcb5-712d-ac29-f2b653a2edca", "evidence": "'transformation from a bitcoin miner to a best-in-class AI/HPC data center company'", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "confidence": 80, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-30 16:53:06.883135+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 5, "whyItWorks": "- It **quantifies the opportunity cost** of inaction. \"Doing nothing\"\n becomes a concrete, visible path, not an abstraction.\n- It **makes the Answer tangible**. The prescription isn't a paragraph;\n it's a trajectory the reader can point at.\n- It **pre-empts the status-quo defence**. Management usually argues \"we\n have a plan\". Your chart shows what their plan looks like vs. yours.\n- It **satisfies both the Architect** (math adds up) **and the Storyteller**\n (emotional delta between two futures).", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Break-up / spinoff", "slug": "breakup-spinoff", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-5344-772a-b45a-1fed8ef8eb1f", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-9845-75d8-a18a-cb6e83410d0c", "description": "You argue the target should be separated into two or more independent\nbusinesses — via spin-off, sale of a segment, REIT conversion, dual-listing\nunification, or carve-out IPO. The thesis: the parts are more valuable\napart than together, because the market assigns conglomerate discounts,\nmisallocates capital across segments, or misprices a hidden asset.\n\nThis pattern usually combines with `patterns/sum-of-parts.md` (the\nvaluation proof). This file focuses on the **strategic move** of proposing\na breakup, not the valuation mechanics.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "019ddf4e-fce4-70f8-b9ea-949879e688c8", "evidence": "Signals openness to consolidation if management fails to execute", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 78, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-30 16:53:06.883135+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 5, "whyItWorks": "- **Structural solutions beat operational ones rhetorically.** \"Sell the\n segment\" is cleaner than \"improve the segment's margins by 300bps\".\n- **It neutralises the CEO-can-fix-this defence.** Even a great operator\n can't fix a capital-allocation problem structurally baked into the\n company.\n- **It offers a clear realisation path** with historical precedents —\n the capital markets know how to spin a subsidiary.\n- **Tax-efficient mechanics exist** (Section 355 spin-offs in US,\n demergers in UK/EU) that neutralise \"too tax-inefficient\" pushback.\n- **It shows management what \"yes\" looks like**. Vague demands get\n rejected; a specific structural proposal forces a yes/no.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Data Story Arc", "slug": "data-story-arc", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-9c30-728e-b974-d3fb123dcf5a", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Context → Conflict → Insight → Implication structure for data narratives", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Loop", "categorySlug": "loop" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "loop", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "019ddf4e-fb18-765e-8fa9-273b89bfd173", "evidence": "Table builds toward $23-$53 upside narrative", "pageRefs": null, "priority": "Core", "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 70, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-30 16:53:06.883135+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 3, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Data Story Arc", "slug": "data-story-arc", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-9c30-728e-b974-d3fb123dcf5a", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Context → Conflict → Insight → Implication structure for data narratives", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Loop", "categorySlug": "loop" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "loop", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "019ddf4e-fc2b-7173-8710-f45460cf3aa7", "evidence": "Quant bridge from EBITDA -> equity -> share price", "pageRefs": null, "priority": "Core", "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 68, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-30 16:53:06.883135+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 4, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Action Titles", "slug": "action-titles", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Any decision-grade deliverable — strategy recommendation, board update, investment memo, M&A review, post-mortem — where the reader is being asked to agree, decide, or act and will skim the title bar at speed.", "canonId": "019dd956-ac70-700b-a608-ba58e78f5dcc", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "816dad3c-9983-41c1-a86e-978ebd582841", "description": "The McKinsey-bred discipline of writing every slide title as a complete declarative sentence with a verb and an insight, not a topic label. Each title is a sub-claim that ladders up to the deck's governing thought; read in sequence, the titles reconstruct the executive summary.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Slide", "categorySlug": "slide" }, "agent": "Architect", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Architect" ], "matchId": "019ddf4e-f836-75ba-a5b1-8f960eb029d1", "evidence": "Title doubles as headline framing thesis", "pageRefs": null, "priority": "Core", "whenToUse": "Any decision-grade deliverable — strategy recommendation, board update, investment memo, M&A review, post-mortem — where the reader is being asked to agree, decide, or act and will skim the title bar at speed.", "confidence": 80, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-30 16:53:06.883135+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 1, "whyItWorks": "Solves two failure modes at once. (1) The buried claim: action titles place the conclusion on the page before any analysis is read, so a busy reader doesn't reverse-engineer it from the chart. (2) The spineless deck: because each title is a claim, slides have to ladder up to the governing thought; logical gaps become visible as topic-shaped titles in a sequence that no longer reads as a story.", "antipattern": "Topic labels disguised as titles — Volume by quarter, Key findings, Pricing strategy, Margins have been impacted. No verb, or a passive verb with no agent, or a fact (Revenue grew 12%) without the so-what. Also: titles that overreach the chart's evidence, multi-claim X-grew-but-Y-fell welded titles, and mechanical repetition of the same X-drove-Y template across the deck.", "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": "Forces the deck to carry its argument in the title bar so a senior reader can extract the recommendation without opening a single slide; converts a binder of topics into a navigable pyramid where every slide is a node defending the apex." }, { "tool": { "name": "Opening Hooks", "slug": "opening-hooks", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-aeb0-77d5-bfbd-9cd9a6be8186", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Techniques to capture attention: Startling statistic, provocative question, short story, analogy, contrast", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Slide", "categorySlug": "slide" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "019ddf4e-f895-76ac-a5db-35561131fa80", "evidence": "Cover opens with the underperformance chart", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 78, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-30 16:53:06.883135+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 1, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Sparklines (Chart)", "slug": "sparklines-chart", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-b3db-7239-aa95-d24b7cdc29e4", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Word-sized graphics embedded in text for data density", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Slide", "categorySlug": "slide" }, "agent": "Designer", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Designer" ], "matchId": "019ddf4e-f91e-70bf-af24-ed705dff731c", "evidence": "Indexed stock-price line chart since Jan 2024", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 72, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-30 16:53:06.883135+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 1, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Action Titles", "slug": "action-titles", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Any decision-grade deliverable — strategy recommendation, board update, investment memo, M&A review, post-mortem — where the reader is being asked to agree, decide, or act and will skim the title bar at speed.", "canonId": "019dd956-ac70-700b-a608-ba58e78f5dcc", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "816dad3c-9983-41c1-a86e-978ebd582841", "description": "The McKinsey-bred discipline of writing every slide title as a complete declarative sentence with a verb and an insight, not a topic label. 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Includes soft sale-of-company optionality ('exciting candidate for consolidation') as a fallback.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "1.7GW fully available (1.0GW Corsicana, 0.7GW Rockdale)", "metric": "Gross power capacity at Corsicana + Rockdale" }, { "detail": "~$1.80/MW of CIT MW; ~1.4GW across four peers Aug-Dec 2025", "metric": "Peer AI/HPC lease rate" }, { "detail": "$1.24mm annual revenue and $1mm EBITDA per CIT MW; 80% EBITDA margin; $311mm over 10-year term", "metric": "AMD deal lease economics" }, { "detail": "$3.6mm per CIT MW at Rockdale, below precedent AI/HPC transactions", "metric": "AMD retrofit capex" }, { "detail": "~$1.6bn annually (Corsicana $1,020mm + Rockdale non-AMD $408mm + Rockdale AMD $199mm)", "metric": "Potential AI/HPC EBITDA" }, { "detail": "~22x NTM EBITDA for DLR/EQIX data-center REITs as of Feb 13, 2026", "metric": "Valuation multiple benchmark" }, { "detail": "$23.55 at 12.5x to $52.60 at 20x AI/HPC EBITDA", "metric": "Implied pro-forma share price" }, { "detail": "Improved from ~69% in Sep 2024 to 86% in Q3 2025", "metric": "Mining operations uptime" }, { "detail": "Non-cash charges dropping from ~$25mm/quarter to ~$8mm in Q3 2026", "metric": "Stock-based compensation run-rate" }, { "detail": "$1,005mm", "metric": "Net cash position" }, { "detail": "~$1.2bn as of FY24 10-K", "metric": "NOL carryforwards" }, { "detail": "420mm", "metric": "Diluted shares outstanding" } ], "closingAsk": "Act with urgency to execute additional sizable AI/HPC deals on the remaining 1.4GW, or explore consolidation given the significant interest expected in Riot's premier power assets.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 16:03:47+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 116.65365, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Monetizing 1.4GW at peer precedent terms yields ~$1.6bn annual EBITDA; at 12.5x-20x (a discount to ~22x NTM data-center REIT multiples) the AI/HPC build-out alone implies $23-$53 per share.", "thesisTypes": [ "strategic_pivot", "operational_turnaround", "sale_of_company" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Corsicana and Rockdale (1.7GW of already-powered capacity) are better than most peer AI/HPC sites", "Monetizing the remaining 1.4GW at peer precedent terms could generate ~$1.6bn annual EBITDA", "At 12.5x-20x EBITDA, AI/HPC value implies $23-$53 per share, dwarfing current market cap" ], "scqaSituation": "Riot Platforms is a bitcoin miner that a year ago pivoted toward AI/HPC data centers, sitting on 1.7GW of already-powered capacity at Corsicana (outside Dallas) and Rockdale (outside Austin) in ERCOT.", "thesisSummary": "Starboard argues Riot Platforms has materially underperformed bitcoin-mining peers that have signed sizable AI/HPC data center deals, despite owning two of the most attractive powered sites in the country: Corsicana (1.0GW) and Rockdale (0.7GW) in ERCOT. The January 2026 AMD deal, at $1.24mm revenue and $1mm EBITDA per Critical-IT MW on just $3.6mm/MW of retrofit capex, validates the intrinsic value of Riot's sites but is only a small proof of concept. If Riot monetizes the remaining 1.4GW in line with recent TeraWulf, Cipher Mining, and Hut 8 precedents with Fluidstack/Google/AWS, AI/HPC alone could generate ~$1.6bn EBITDA. Applying 12.5x-20x multiples (a discount to 22x data-center REITs DLR/EQIX), that implies $23-$53 per share, excluding bitcoin, the Metron engineering business, and $1.2bn of NOLs. 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AI/HPC companies have announced ambitious plans to scale their capacity exponentially over the next few years. Perhaps the biggest constraint on this build-out is the availability of power in locations suitable for high-quality data centers. This problem has only gotten worse, with the queue for large grid interconnections now stretching to several years, and some grid operators, including ERCOT – where Riot operates – exploring potential plans to limit new power allocations to data centers. 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