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Hybrid letter/deck format: Word-processed body text with embedded institutional charts. Rhetorical spine is former CEO Rich Templeton's 'best measure' (FCF/share) mantra — Elliott uses TI's own historical commitments and the 2003 RFAB 1 'modulate to demand' precedent as a non-adversarial frame, asking TI to return to its own playbook rather than attacking management personally. Stake is $2.5bn+ but no percentage disclosed (market cap ~$160bn implies ~1.6%). No villain named; tone is collaborative-analytical. Notable analyst quote collage on p7 (Citi/BofA/Wells/Cowen) reinforces sell-side consensus. Capex scenarios table on p12 quantifies the ask ($9.01 FCF/share in both Consensus and Share Gain cases). Campaign later resulted in Elliott accepting CFO Haviv Ilan's retention and TI reporting improved FCF discipline.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "-77% YoY in 2023 ($1.47 vs $6.72 in 2021); 76% below 2019 level", "metric": "FCF per share decline" }, { "detail": "29% in 2023 and 32% in 2024E, vs. ~6% average from 2011-2020", "metric": "Capex % of revenue" }, { "detail": "$5.1bn in 2023 and $5.0bn in 2024E, up from $0.6bn average pre-2021", "metric": "Annual capex" }, { "detail": "$30bn planned vs $19.96bn consensus — 50% excess", "metric": "2026 revenue capacity vs consensus" }, { "detail": "$45bn planned vs $29.2bn consensus — 54% excess", "metric": "2030 revenue capacity vs consensus" }, { "detail": "Underperformed by 96%, 169%, 273%, 644% over 2/4/6/10-year windows through May 2024", "metric": "TSR vs VanEck Semiconductor Index (SMH)" }, { "detail": "16th/20th/20th/38th percentile over 2/4/6/10-year windows", "metric": "TSR percentile within SMH" }, { "detail": "42% — top-tier among global semis, trailing only TSM (43%) and NVDA (54%)", "metric": "2023 GAAP EBIT margin" }, { "detail": "TI expanded from 13% to 19% share from 2006 to 2019", "metric": "Analog market share" }, { "detail": "85% for TI vs 15% for #2 player", "metric": "U.S. 300-mm analog manufacturing capacity share" }, { "detail": "Only 27% buy — second-lowest among global semis after Intel (vs MCHP 72%, ADI 64%)", "metric": "Analyst buy ratings" }, { "detail": "17% — TSR outperformed S&P 500 by ~200% and analog peers by ~135%", "metric": "FCF per share CAGR 2006-2019" } ], "closingAsk": "We look forward to discussing our proposed approach with the Board and management team and hope to meet in the next several weeks.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 14:57:17+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 152.39813, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "FCF per share of $9.00+ in 2026 (~40% above consensus) with a path to $11.00+ in 2027, restoring TI's historical 'best measure' trend line and closing the multi-year TSR gap versus analog peers.", "thesisTypes": [ "capital_return", "operational_turnaround", "cost_cutting" ], "top3Reasons": [ "TI's 2022 capex ramp has collapsed free cash flow per share by more than 75% since announcement", "Planned 2026 revenue capacity of $30bn is 50% above consensus — equivalent of two dormant $5bn fabs", "TI's own RFAB 1 playbook — build shells, equip on demand — delivered 17% FCF/share CAGR from 2006-2019" ], "scqaSituation": "Texas Instruments is the #1 analog semiconductor company with industry-leading margins, a geopolitically prized U.S. manufacturing footprint, and a decade-long legacy of growing free cash flow per share at a 17% CAGR through 2019.", "thesisSummary": "Elliott, holding over $2.5 billion in Texas Instruments, argues that since TI announced a $5bn/year capex program in 2022, free cash flow per share has collapsed by more than 75% and the stock has trailed every relevant benchmark over 2-, 4-, 6-, and 10-year windows. The root cause is a rigid plan to build capacity for $30bn of 2026 revenue — roughly 50% above consensus expectations — without tying buildout pace to demand. Elliott asks the Board to adopt a 'dynamic capacity-management' approach (equipping fab shells only as demand materializes, mirroring TI's own RFAB 1 playbook from 2003-2010) and commit to a $9.00+ FCF-per-share target in 2026, ~40% above current expectations. The argument leans on former CEO Rich Templeton's 'best measure' mantra to frame capital discipline as a return to TI's own roots.", "primaryDemands": [ "Adopt a dynamic capacity-management approach that flexes capex to customer demand rather than adhering to a fixed $5bn/year plan", "Commit publicly to a $9.00+ free cash flow per share target for 2026 (~40% above current investor expectations)", "Modulate the pace of equipping fab shells (SM 1, SM 2, LFAB 2) based on demand, consistent with TI's own RFAB 1 historical playbook", "Re-establish free cash flow per share as the 'best measure' of performance with CEO-communicated multi-year targets" ], "scqaResolution": "Adopt a dynamic capacity-management approach: modulate the pace of equipping fab shells to actual customer demand, as TI did with RFAB 1 from 2003 to 2010, and publicly commit to a $9.00+ FCF per share target for 2026.", "thesisOneLiner": "TI's rigid $5bn/year capex ramp is building ~50% excess capacity and has collapsed FCF per share 75%; flex capex to demand and commit to $9.00+ per share by 2026.", "precedentsCited": [ "TI's own RFAB 1 construction (2003-2010): shell built first, equipment added gradually as demand materialized", "TI's 2012 Investor Meeting framework distinguishing cleanroom capacity vs. equipped capacity", "National Semiconductor acquisition (2011) as value-accretive share gain", "Former CEO Rich Templeton's 'best measure' (FCF per share) mantra (2015-2019 quotes)" ], "scqaComplication": "The 2022 capex ramp to $5bn/year is building toward $30bn of 2026 revenue — roughly 50% above consensus — which has collapsed FCF per share by 75%+ and driven shareholder returns to the bottom 40% of the semi index.", "narrativeInterest": 4, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 12 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "ADI", "QCOM", "SWKS", "Renesas", "MediaTek", "STM", "NXPI", "IFX", "QRVO", "MCHP", "ON", "STMPA", "TSM", "NVDA", "Intel", "AVGO", "KLAC", "ASML", "AMAT", "CDNS", "SNPS", "MCHP", "OLED", "LRCX" ], "valuationFrameworks": [ "multiple_comparison", "other" ], "visualCraftInterest": 3 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "tension", "title": "This is the first page of a shareholder letter. 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Today, TI has the second-lowest percentage of “buy” ratings among global semiconductor peers.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:16:31.948+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "59b1f684-da83-4d8d-ae99-324ae85c4f8e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.26 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "While TI may argue that this impairment of free cash flow performance is merely temporary, TI has made no commitments to the investment community.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:16:31.948+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fd0d9021-9c61-4e11-835c-ccec5dc0b7e6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"We are skeptical that TXN can achieve their revenue targets given its growth rate of mid-single digits. Given elevated capex and depreciation, we believe TI’s margins will remain under pressure through 2026 unless capex is cut.\" — Citi; \"Texas Instruments (TXN): We wish we could all have a 15-year investment horizon...downgrading to Underperform\" — AB; \"We are initiating coverage of TXN with an Underweight (UW) rating and $150 price tgt. Our rating reflects a concern TXN can’t achieve rev tgts & related utilization; i.e., 300mm capacity expansion plans intended to reach $30B FY26 rev. 19% CAGR.\" — Wells Fargo; \"We still believe investing in mature node capacity is the right strategic decision long-term. 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