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For instance, our results remain qualitatively similar even if we systematically deflate the power output and inflate the connection costs of CDM projects by as much as 20%.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:09.334+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "71b01696-5cd4-468c-97c6-6b7ee16127c4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Do carbon offsets offset carbon? Our analysis suggests that in many cases they don't. Carbon offsets are frequently given to BLIMPs, which means that they do not generate the emissions reductions needed to offset the emissions increases that they enable.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:09.334+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "89b7a565-a235-4c5b-b24e-d46cefb27d0a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.84 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1 For scale, the average conventional coal plant in the US in 2019 had a capacity of 808 MW... 2 Infra-marginal projects may also result in agglomeration effects...", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Unlike a traditional subsidy program, the consequence of misallocating offsets isn't just to create an inefficient transfer. It also generates external costs by underwriting an increase in global emissions.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-24 16:20:17+00", "model": "or:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-340a-72a9-8459-aa0fac917dff", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.242, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.22 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Our paper also contributes to the study of a broader class of policies that leverage the logic of offsetting. 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Although developers don't receive money directly from the UN, they do receive valuable CERs that can be exchanged for money on the open market, including through the sale of carbon offset futures. It is the promise of this extra money that was intended to lure developers to build more renewable energy projects than they otherwise would have.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:11.596+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1e770f43-99a2-475d-bab5-cfc21cd58ff7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.186, "w": 0.784, "x": 0.108, "y": 0.528 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The CDM has been an extremely popular program. By 2030, it is expected that the CDM will have issued up to 11.8 billion credits, equivalent in magnitude to the total emissions of the United States and Europe in 2019. China (6.55 billion), India (1.32 billion), and Brazil (0.7 billion) account for over 70% of these credits. Over half of all CERs finance just two types of projects: hydro power (27%) and wind power (24%), the latter being the focus of our study. It has been estimated that the CDM has supported over $90 billion of renewable energy investment in developing countries, or roughly 13% of their total renewable energy investment (Kossoy et al., 2015). 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It was established as part of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. Under this program, industrialised countries that had committed to reducing emissions domestically were permitted to meet some of their obligation by developing or financing equivalent emission reductions projects in developing countries. This additional flexibility ostensibly achieves the same global emissions reduction at a lower cost. In practice, the exchange of financing and emissions would be accomplished by the UN issuing Certified Emission Reduction (CER) credits to approved projects in developing countries, each CER signifying one avoided tonne of carbon dioxide. Those credits could then be sold to regulated firms in developed countries and counted towards their country's Kyoto target.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:11.596+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ad07cba4-72b8-4e4c-8eaf-88d9d722c468", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.223, "w": 0.784, "x": 0.108, "y": 0.722 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "To register under the CDM, a project had to go through two stages of evaluation. First, project developers would initiate the process by writing a Project Design Document (PDD) describing the project and proposing a demonstration of \"additionality.\" In this context, \"additionality\" means that the project is expected to reduce emissions below the business-as-usual trajectory. A Designated National Authority (DNA)—in India, the Ministry of Environment and Forests—then evaluates whether the project, as described in the PDD, meets the CDM requirements, which include \"additionality.\" Second, the CDM Executive Board, which supervises the CDM globally, decides whether or not to register valid projects submitted by the DNA. 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However, the absence of evidence that projects are marginal that previous studies have pointed to is not the same as providing evidence that they are infra-marginal. The most notable direct evidence of infra-marginal projects concerns the potent greenhouse gas HFC-23, which is a by-product in the production of some refrigerants. Wara (2007b,a), Schneider (2011), and Schneider and Kollmuss (2015) persuasively show that Chinese and Russian refrigerant factories were running over-time just to produce more of this by-product, since the destruction of this highly potent greenhouse gas allowed them to claim CERs that were much more valuable than the refrigerant being manufactured. Once the problematic projects were identified, regulators could easily ban polluters from using these specific credits for compliance purposes.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:17.231+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7d249660-e9f6-4ffe-bc25-d61543ee3ed2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.13 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "It is critical that CDM projects are in fact marginal, since they receive CER credits that are used to relax someone else's emissions quota. If CDM projects are marginal, the CERs represent emissions reductions that are generated elsewhere, reducing abatement costs without compromising progress towards meeting global emissions reduction targets. However, if projects are infra-marginal, global emissions increase. The regulatory problem is the same as any subsidy program—the regulator's objective is to avoid supporting infra-marginal projects.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:17.231+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a629b902-e357-4331-ae51-35818358b685", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The CDM Executive Board applies a set of standardized methodologies to determine whether or not a project is marginal. For renewable energy projects, the principle is straightforward. Calculate the project's internal rate of return with and without the extra revenue that would come from selling CER credits. If the internal rate of return with CER revenue exceeds a benchmark rate, but the rate without CER revenue does not, the project is judged to be marginal. The CER revenue is estimated by multiplying the electricity that would be generated by a \"business as usual\" emissions factor. Most projects use a factor equal to the generation-weighted average carbon dioxide emissions per unit of net electricity generation from all generating power plants serving the same regional grid (tCO2/MWh). 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First, it is difficult to objectively estimate or evaluate internal rates of return. In practice the PDDs frequently rely on subjective arguments or neglect to provide the underlying data used in their calculations (Schneider, 2009). Even when detailed information is available and analysis has been performed, the results are not verifiable by the authorities in charge of CDM registration (Michaelowa and Purohit, 2007). 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New capacity is calculated from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, and allocated to CDM and non-CDM by cross-referencing projects with the UNEP DTU CDM pipeline. 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Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Scatter plot", "slug": "scatter", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-007d-72ec-8689-c79fb78e21a2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "scatter", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:11.071+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5f2c9397-694c-4f32-8d3c-e7cb6c938e44", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Project cost: 49.23", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-24 16:20:17+00", "model": "or:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-340a-72a9-845a-298f2ae3d964", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "developments suggest that these costs make up about 8-10% of up-front investment (Blanco, 2009). If we regress project costs on capacity and distance for the subset where all three are observed, the intercept is ≈ INR 20 million, which corresponds to nearly 8% of project costs on average. The combination of a fixed up-front cost and a constant cost per MW means that the average cost per MW is declining in the scale of the project.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:11.071+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "14502b4c-fc81-46e9-a4a7-fc62a867aa6d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.62 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Maintenance costs, vyt, and taxes, τlyt, could in principle undo some of the benefits of scale, but in practice they do not. Similar to prices, maintenance costs are contracted at the time of construction, and they tend to follow an industry-standard schedule. A typical maintenance contract charges a flat fee per MW of built capacity, which subsequently increases by some fixed percentage with each passing year. Therefore, if we are comparing two wind farms of the same size, built in the same year, they will have the same maintenance cost over the lifetime of the project.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:11.071+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8467479a-faea-4e25-bc62-05ff7786ebaf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.93 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "To summarize, power output is an increasing function of generation capacity, and to some extent, so is the revenue per kWh. Because of planning costs, larger wind farms will have a lower", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:11.071+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d0ab2953-9630-4237-9e17-86c15e230537", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "When it comes to taxes, wind farms pay the same state and national taxes in India as any other enterprise, with the exception of the Accelerated Depreciation Benefit. Starting in 1994, wind farm developers were permitted to apply a 100% rate of depreciation to their newly built projects. The rate was lowered to 80% in 2002, then to 0% in 2012, before returning to 80% in 2014. This means that wind farm developers in India would have paid almost no taxes on their developments during our period of study. To the extent that wind farm developments are subject to different tax regimes, these will differ primarily by vintage. 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The cost of doing so accounts for 10-15% of the up-front investment on average (Blanco, 2009), and since most of this cost is the laying of cables, these costs increase roughly in proportion to the distance between the turbines and the connection point, dn. Longer connection distances also imply greater transmission losses, once the wind farm is built. Since", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:17.531+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2b78b23c-5ac5-4ee0-a9d8-97555727d905", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.23, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "To complete our calculations, we use the technical specifications of the Enercon E-53 800 kW turbine, the power curve of which is plotted in Figure 3. In our setting, using the same “benchmark” turbine for all sites has crucial advantages over trying to match the particular turbines at each location. In particular, when trying to judge which projects are and aren’t deserving of a subsidy, this approach avoids penalizing developers for choosing superior turbines, and avoids rewarding them for selecting inferior turbines. Using the same turbine to evaluate wind resources of all sites avoids these perverse incentives, and instead provides a common standard for evaluation. While there are many different turbines to choose from, the E-53 is the most common in our data set by far, accounting for about 15% of all turbines we have been able to identify. It seems reasonable to expect this turbine to be widely available during this period, and that it would have been a suitable choice across a range of locations. This makes it a suitable benchmark.6", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:17.531+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3533231c-3238-4eb3-b724-13b1576bcd0e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Figure 3: Power curve for the Enercon E-53 800 kW turbine. The power curve is drawn here for a standard air density of 1.225 kg/m3. Going from left to right, the dashed vertical lines indicate the cut-in wind speed, the rated wind speed, and the cut-out wind speed, respectively.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:17.531+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "76b7b872-eb6a-4e11-a9c8-2ce55d7b3509", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.865 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "5 Appendix B includes a detailed description of the data, and a comparison with historical weather data for India. 6 Appendix B contains a fuller discuss of the choice of benchmark turbine. As a sensitivity analysis, we will later replicate our analysis using an alternative benchmark turbine.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Figure 4 illustrates the results for one multi-site wind power project that is spread across ten villages.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:12.661+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1cd505e5-236d-4152-8912-9fc17ffb621a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This approach may underestimate connection distances, since it does not take into account topographical obstacles. The magnitude of any bias will tend to scale with the connection distance. As a result, this type of measurement error will not distort the ordering of connection distances, and therefore does not affect our empirical analysis.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:12.661+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "44fee33d-0080-4763-81f9-f55c09d4462b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Classical measurement error is not expected to affect our analysis. This is because it would be just as likely to lead to an erroneous BLIMP inference as an erroneous non-BLIMP inference. In our setting, a problem would arise only if our estimation method systematically underestimated the distance for CDM projects relative to non-CDM projects, or vice versa. This might occur, for example, if CDM projects are disproportionately built in places where topographical features increase the the real connection distance relative to the distance measured as the crow flies. In sensitivity analysis, we how sensitive our findings are to this possibility by deliberately inflating the distances for CDM projects relative to non-CDM projects.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:12.661+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5056fdd9-ffd1-461a-8594-99fe7246aad8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "greater remoteness, in and of itself, provides no particular benefit, it is easy to see that the payoff is a decreasing function of connection distance.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:12.661+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "be6e3119-d678-4f24-8174-cb044878b3ff", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Figure 5 shows that the estimated connection distance is positively associated with project costs for the sub-sample where both are observed. The association is comparatively weak, consistent with the premise that distance to the grid affects only a small portion of overall project costs.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:12.661+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d17b5c4a-ffbf-4134-8faf-1e9f76c5f5f8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We do not observe the connection distance directly and so need to estimate it. To do this, we need the geographical coordinates of the electrical substations as well as of turbines themselves. The coordinates of electrical substations were collected by Burlig et al. (2020), while the coordinates of the turbines were found using a combination of information found in the Bloomberg New Energy Finance database, the UNFCCC's CDM project database, and extensive online research, including press releases, news reports, and documents published by the Indian government. Rather than pinpointing turbines individually, we record the coordinates of the village in which the turbines are located. This was partly out of practical necessity, but also means that our findings cannot be driven by arbitrarily small differences in location. 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The left plot shows the geographical distribution of wind project-sites across India. 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BLIMPs are only a subset of infra-marginal projects, and they are a conservative indicator of infra-marginality.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-24 16:20:19+00", "model": "or:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-340a-72a9-845a-e81750ec0ed2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.81 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The total number of BLIMPs, however, can provide a useful indication of the degree of mis-allocation. To give this number a meaningful interpretation we require an alternative allocation mechanism of known quality that can serve as a benchmark. We can then compare the realized number of BLIMPs in the CDM's allocation to the number of BLIMPs that would have received support in counterfactual allocation scenarios.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:12.976+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "06db9818-306e-4082-a5a3-b64c8c5f75a3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The way that the UN Executive Board evaluates applications is by setting V equal to zero and then working out whether the implied internal rate of return r_tilde exceeds some common threshold value or not. This is equivalent to letting r equal the social discount rate and working out whether V exceeds some common reservation payoff. For the purpose of evaluating projects for carbon offsets we should apply a common discount rate to all projects. Since electricity prices and taxes only vary across states and years, and there is no additional variation coming from the discount rate, the \"other things equal\"-condition will be met so long as we are comparing wind farms built in the same state and year. In sensitivity analysis we impose more restrictive comparison groups.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:12.976+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "07b1c8f7-dc24-4abe-a446-353e7d845aac", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.12 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We have argued that, all else equal, the developer's payoff is increasing in generation capacity and capacity factor, and decreasing in connection distance. But what things need to be held constant? The most important factor is the electricity price, p_lyt. Electricity prices do vary across states and time, but they do not vary across wind farms built in the same state and year. The same goes for maintenance and tax schedules, t_lyt and v_yt.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:12.976+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3679afba-87a7-41bf-abdc-21fe71389144", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The ideal number of BLIMPs receiving subsidies is clearly zero. BLIMPs are only a subset of infra-marginal projects, and they are a conservative indicator of infra-marginality. A program could in principle subsidize many infra-marginal projects without subsidizing any BLIMPs. The number of BLIMPs therefore provides a conservative lower bound on the total number of infra-marginal projects. On some level the existence of any BLIMPs is a sign of something having gone wrong in the CDM's decision making process.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:12.976+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ae46a18e-5f4c-41a2-8f96-bd62db0f85fc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.9 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We argue that a lottery is a useful benchmark mechanism. A lottery provides a floor for performance. In expectation, a lottery would allocate subsidies in a way that is uncorrelated with whether a project is marginal or infra-marginal. By repeating the lottery many times, we can obtain a distribution of the number of BLIMPs that a lottery would subsidize. Each time the lottery is repeated, we let the CDM Executive Board", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:12.976+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d41acf09-527a-4887-9e97-e52404ff3c3a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The final piece of equation 3 is the discount rate r. If we wanted to determine the real payoff to any particular wind farm developer, we would need to know the rate of interest at which they are able to access capital. However, our objective is somewhat different, in that we are trying to determine whether the a project is worth subsidizing or not. Obviously, we do not want to subsidize wind farms simply because their developers are risky borrowers. 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Figure 7a plots the observed number of BLIMPs against the distribution of 100,000 hypothetical lottery realizations.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:11.38+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "df282826-35fb-486a-a371-170fc9915b1e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.455 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Out of the 1350 Indian wind farms in our database, 472 are registered under the CDM. Of those, we identify 56% as BLIMPs (figure 6). 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These may have been measured with error.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:11.985+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7f049ce0-a54d-47bf-bc8a-d9fbabae8b94", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.87 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "10 If we extrapolate this rate of infra-marginal support to the CDM as a whole, the program would have increased global emissions by 6.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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In our main analysis we use the technical specifications of Enercon's E-53 turbine to estimate capacity factors. This is the most common turbine in our database. The power curve of any particular turbine, however, will undoubtedly favor some wind profiles, i.e. locations, over others. If these locations happen to be correlated with CDM registration, this would bias our results. We address this concern by swapping out Enercon's E-53 turbine for Suzlon's S82 turbine—another very common turbine in our data set that has a different power curve. In row (5) of Table 1 we see that this substitution makes very little difference to the results.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:13.528+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2af2582b-e775-4749-8eaa-1aeb1aa8c8fc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "start by re-computing our results using alternative estimates of connection costs and capacity factors. Since each method of estimation is likely to produce different errors, it would be revealing if this exercise yielded substantially different results.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:13.528+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "34e3559e-32a6-4ed5-8dc8-3927c26ba927", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.24 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "To address this concern, we re-estimate connection distances while imposing the constraint that wind farms may only be connected to substations in the same state. State boundaries are the most important obstacles preventing wind farms from connecting to the nearest substation, so this should redress any systematic imbalance between CDM and non-CDM projects with respect to the administrative obstacles associated with transecting state boundaries. The results, reported in row (1) of Table 1, are almost identical to the original estimates. If anything, the CDM's performance slightly deteriorates both in absolute terms and relative to a lottery.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:13.528+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "48370331-f029-4d0c-9ca7-c2298372cf13", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "One possible source of asymmetric error in our estimates of connection costs is our assumption that wind farms are always connected to the nearest substation. It might be that CDM projects need extra support because they face greater obstacles to connect to nearby substations and instead can only connect to more distant substations. In this case, we will have systematically underestimated the connection costs of CDM projects relative to non-CDM projects.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:13.528+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6037d7e8-5b44-465c-a0a6-d1c3c014020d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.71 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The air density estimates could contribute measurement errors through the same mechanism. Capacity factors are often estimated using data on wind speeds alone, while assuming a standard air density. If our estimates of air density are noisier for some locations than others, and this", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:13.528+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a2d0b900-aecf-4a3b-bbb4-8d6b5d693687", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.44 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We can examine this hypothesis indirectly by substituting a range of alternative lists of plausible grid connection points. In row (2) of Table 1 we report the results using the locations of conventional power plants. In row (3) we use the location of cities that, according to the 2001 Indian census, had a population of at least 100,000. In row (4) we use the location of cities listed in the 2001 Indian census as having electrical power. The results barely change, indicating either that all four lists suffer from the same exact bias, or that the list compiled by Burlig et al. 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At this value, the number of BLIMPs drops sharply, however, the BLIMPs that remain still account for a large number of carbon offsets.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:12.054+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2950c8c1-87ca-41e1-877d-ad4aa785f8f4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.13 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "It is possible that there are other sources of systematic measurement error that we haven't thought about. 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The content is academic/technical analysis of methodology.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph" ], "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:14.436+00", "seconds": 4.919, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-6131f37efc2b/27", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-6131f37efc2b", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-6131f37efc2b#slide-27", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-6131f37efc2b.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.085, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.285 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Another potential omitted variable is the number of sites a project is spread across. The number of sites could affect the cost to build and to connect a wind farm. Row (9) matches projects on state, vintage, and number of sites. As before, this makes it harder to identify BLIMPs, but in relative terms, the CDM still performs poorly when compared to a lottery.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:14.436+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1ea5583a-5aee-4a15-9448-71e75a2d1e8f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.185, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.519 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Arguments about omitted policy variables can be extended down to the district-level, and in the limit, down to the village-level. Perhaps there is systematic variation in policies (or factor prices) between districts or villages within the same state, which affect costs. In rows (11) and (12) we match wind farms in the same districts and the same villages. It now becomes much more difficult to find comparable wind farms and to spot BLIMPs. Matching at the village-year level has the side-effect of also eliminating variation in connection distances and capacity factors, so BLIMPs are only identified based on size differences. Even so, measured either in BLIMP capacity or offsets, the CDM still performs poorly relative to a lottery.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:14.436+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "46741036-66a3-4a5e-8ac7-719454377b31", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.185, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.093 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "turers differ in their pricing, quality, technical specifications, ability to supply large developments, maintenance costs, etc., we could imagine that the choice of manufacturer affects both the profitability of a wind farm and features like its capacity or capacity factor. In row (8) of Table 1, we therefore require projects to use turbines from the same manufacturer in order to allow one of them to be classified as a BLIMP. Unsurprisingly, BLIMPs are much rarer occurrences if we require that wind farms are built in the same year, in the same state, and use turbines from the same manufacturer. 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As discussed, the Generation-Based Incentive specifically supports wind farm developments that exceed 5MW in capacity. If the policy is in place to compensate for some unobserved cost of scale, such as the loss of support from local governments then our results may be biased. In row (10) we match wind farms on the year of construction, the state, and on whether it exceeded the 5MW capacity threshold. This improves outcomes for the CDM, but a lottery would still outperform the CDM most of the time.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:14.436+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bce4825f-3a7d-486a-87c2-7b3a986217e3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.215, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.711 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "It is also possible that differences in project developer are more important than a feature of the wind farm, or a function of its location. 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Still, the CDM is more likely to produce greater BLIMP capacity and a greater quantity of BLIMP offsets than a lottery. We also see that most of the identification of BLIMPs in our original analysis comes from relative capacity. This is reassuring for two reasons. First, of the three variables that enter monotonically into the value function, capacity is the only one we have direct measurements of and do not estimate. Capacities are easily observed and therefore are at least risk of measurement error. The second reason is the strong empirical association between capacity and project costs. The strength of relationship provides an additional reason for confidence on the monotonicity condition on capacity.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:20.967+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2ae16ef4-9d2e-47a3-bb7e-4b83509e1a28", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Though we have ample reason to think that larger wind farms, with higher capacity factors, located closer to electrical substations, will be more profitable developments, it is still worth investigating which of these monotonicity conditions are most important for determining the result.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:20.967+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7fcef3df-30cd-42b8-98ff-7cd05f863996", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.5 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Incomplete Data: If our database is missing any wind farms, we will tend to under-count the number of BLIMPs. If a lot of these missing projects are smaller CDM projects, in more remote locations, and with lower capacity factors, then their inclusion might improve the CDM's observed pattern of decision-making compared to a lottery.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:20.967+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "81918c60-9cab-4a1d-91cb-abaf24f83a61", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Row (17) of Table 1 shows the results under the assumption that all 200 of the unconfirmed wind farms were actually built. The total quantity of CERs allocated to BLIMPs would increase, but increases slightly more under a lottery, which makes the CDM look better by comparison. This arises because the 200 unconfirmed projects are, on average, smaller, more remote, and have lower capacity factors, which makes them better candidates for support. It is unfortunate, then,", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:20.967+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "88d5d6f9-0ddd-4b58-b0ec-69291256f0a6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.13, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In rows (14), (15), and (16) of Table 1, we relax each monotonicity condition in turn. We accomplish this by making sure that CDM wind farms are matched to non-CDM wind farms for each monotonicity condition and then use the remaining two conditions to determine whether the project is a BLIMP. In row (14) we match CDM wind farms to non-CDM wind farms within ±5% of their connection distance, dn, and then use their relative capacities and capacity factors to determine whether each project is a BLIMP or not. For rows (15) and (16), we match on capacity factor or capacity and rank-order projects based on the remaining two monotonicity conditions.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:20.967+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dd8b79a8-533d-4b82-b2eb-e98a54bb5382", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The CDM pipeline includes nearly 200 Indian wind farms that were scheduled to start delivering electricity by 2013, but which we were unable to match to anything in our database. It is likely that these unconfirmed projects were never completed, in which case our earlier analysis stands without modification. We explore the consequence of including them, however, just in case they were built and we were unable to independently confirm their existence.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:20.967+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f47f0f37-6a5a-4430-bb50-1adacc33f0b3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.79 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "14 For capacity factor and capacity, we were able to match projects within ±1% without totally negating our ability to identify any BLIMPs.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:20.967+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1e4fd799-5931-40aa-823e-46ff9bfbeaef", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.82 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "15 In a traditional subsidy program, supporting 200 projects that are never built would be a big waste of resources. However, since the CDM offers a conditional subsidy—CERs are only distributed once a project starts delivering electricity—there is no cost to registering proposed projects that fail to materialize. These are the projects with an index number greater than j in equation 2. 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This suggests that the CDM not only registered too many blatantly infra-marginal projects, but also failed to provide adequate support to potentially marginal projects that did manage to get registered. Still, this is clearly the lesser problem. Even if the CDM had shepherded all 200 of these unconfirmed projects to completion, a lottery would still have allocated fewer CERs to BLIMPs 950 times out of 1,000. This is likely an overestimate of the CDM's performance, since we are only including uncompleted projects that registered under the CDM. 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More precisely, let's say that a subsidized project is a BLIMP only if another project, built in the same state and year, has alpha >= 1 times the connection distance, 1/alpha times the capacity, and 1/alpha times the capacity factor. In the main analysis alpha = 1, but Figure 11 shows what happens when we gradually increase the margin of error to alpha = 2. At this point we are demanding to see projects that are twice as remote, with half the capacity, and with half the wind, before calling something a BLIMP. The full results for alpha = 1.2 are also reported in row (18) of Table 1. The number of BLIMP offsets declines, however, it remains above 5 million CERs even for very high values of alpha. 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Since we have built in the assumption that every BLIMP is partly infra-marginal, the blatantly infra-marginal capacity is much lower—about half of the number in our main results. The number of carbon credits allocated to support this infra-marginal wind capacity is also lower, about a third of our main finding. This should be thought of as a conservative lower bound on infra-marginality. At this lower bound the CDM performs on par with the lottery allocation mechanism.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:20.358+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "46a71e6e-4820-40a1-9460-476ed8276407", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.105, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.75 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Why is the CDM failing to screen out these projects? We cannot answer this question definitively, though we observe that the vast majority of Indian wind power projects whose applications made it to the UN Executive Board were approved. Of the 666 CDM applications submitted for Indian wind farms, including the nearly 200 that we could not link to any real projects, 98% were approved. 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Having a process that accurately screens out projects that do not require subsidies is essential to safeguarding the integrity of offset programs.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:20.358+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "807150fe-39f8-422a-b6ad-c390901721c3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.135, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.525 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "When the CDM was created, India's wind power sector was identified as a context where there was huge potential for supporting marginal projects and increasing development beyond baseline projections. Yet, we estimate that the CDM has approved at least 28 million tonnes-worth of carbon offsets to infra-marginal projects. If we extrapolate this rate of infra-marginal support to the CDM as a whole, we calculate that the program may have increased global carbon dioxide emissions by 6.1 billion tonnes, equivalent to running 20 one-gigawatt coal power plants for their entire 50-year lifespan.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:20.358+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "948026e6-3c53-4fd7-89fb-9c6cd6a67044", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.135, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.383 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The last decade has seen billions of carbon offsets issued to project developers around the world, providing opportunities for regulatory compliance at lower cost. However, when offset programs support projects that would have been developed anyway, they not only waste the limited resources available to mitigate climate change, but also contribute to climate change by increasing global emissions. In the context of the CDM—the world's largest carbon offset program—we estimate that at least 52% of approved carbon offsets were allocated to projects that would very likely have been built anyway. This is a substantial misallocation of resources.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:20.358+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9f915051-2d99-407f-a4cb-1149b62b611f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.015, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.862 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In practice, most of the screening is accomplished earlier in the process through some combination", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:20.358+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ab0b2b25-45c9-4cea-b3bd-a87f95d73de5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.075, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.093 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "To operationalize this idea, we use the next biggest inferior non-CDM project to bound from below the counterfactual capacity of BLIMPs. The next biggest non-CDM project shows what capacity each BLIMP could have been built to, at least, without CDM support. This approach yields a lower bound on infra-marginal capacity, by imposing the assumption that every BLIMP is only partly infra-marginal.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:20.358+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ebaec45d-b831-4480-8325-060eac90bd24", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.015, "w": 0.018, "x": 0.49, "y": 0.935 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "30", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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(2017). Ban the box, criminal records, and racial discrimination: A field experiment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133(1):191-235.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:40:02.072+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.5-flash", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e6b668c5-62b4-43d3-b19b-ea7d01702f09", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.24, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.3 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We acknowledge that our analysis only explores the direct effect of the CDM. 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S. and Walker, R. (2020). Is air pollution regulation too stringent? Mimeo.\nSlattery, C. (2019). Bidding for firms: Subsidy competition in the u.s. Unpublished Working Paper.\nSlattery, C. and Zidar, O. (2020). Evaluating state and local business incentives. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 34(2):90-118.\nSmith, A., Lott, N., and Vose, R. (2011). The integrated surface database: Recent developments and partnerships. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92(6):704-708.\nTaylor, R. L. (2019). Bag leakage: The effect of disposable carryout bag regulations on unregulated bags. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 93:254-271.\nUNEP DTU (2021). Cdm pipeline database. (Last accessed May 2021).\nWara, M. (2007a). Is the global carbon market working? Nature, 445(7128):595-596.\nWara, M. (2007b). Measuring the clean development mechanism's performance and potential. UCLA Law Review, 55:1759.\nWorld Bank Group (2019). State and trends of carbon pricing 2019. 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"components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.4, "y": 0.87 }, "kind": "other", "text": "P = 1/2 ρAw^3", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Other", "slug": "other", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fa90-743c-8bf6-20d1fbe82b6d", "version": 1, "description": "Fallback when no canonical kind applies." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Unclassified", "slug": "unclassified", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-05ca-77db-81fb-db7d4234bbc0", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "unclassified", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:14.828+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8ad8b388-8b83-48fd-a9f1-1f49832190ce", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts provides 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It uses the global circulation model H-TESSEL to interpolate meteorological data to provide greater coverage of observationally sparse regions, yielding data that are more uniform in quality and realism than observations alone, and that is closer to reality than any model could provide on its own. 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The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), in partnership with the Technical University of Denmark (DTU), provides a processed version of this database, called the CDM pipeline (UNEP DTU, 2021), which includes many key details of the proposed projects, as well as the status of the applications.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:14.828+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": 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First, you need a minimum amount of force to get the blades moving... Second, the air slows down as it pushes the blades... Third, due to the limitations of the materials, turbines cannot safely and reliably rotate at any speed.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:40:03.374+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.5-flash", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6757f6fc-ea18-4d78-a710-83740b1cace4", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 42, "type": "analysis", "title": "The chart shows a long-tail distribution of turbine models. 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One possibility is to use readings from nearby weather stations... but these data leave much to be desired.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:15.46+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1d71ea64-499c-42e1-aeba-d637b0e269da", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.62 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Having chosen a benchmark turbine, we are now in similar position to a wind farm developer. We now know the technical characteristics of the turbines we wish to evaluate and we know the site at which they are being erected, but neither of us knows what the weather will be over the life of the turbine.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:15.46+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7fdf968c-e3ef-459e-b970-a08be6f2b841", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "For our calculations, we use the technical specifications of the Enercon E-53 800 kW turbine. While there are many different turbines to choose from, the E-53 is the most common in our data set by far. It accounts for ≈15% of all the turbines we have been able to identify (Figure A2).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:15.46+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fd7cf227-9922-40bb-9449-055bd9800fb7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.51 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As a sensitivity analysis, we replicate our analysis using Suzlon's S82 1.5MW turbine. As Figure A2 shows, the Suzlon S82 is another heavily used turbine, and it has the distinction of being the turbine used in most projects—it is used in 25% of all wind farms for which we can identify the make and model.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:15.46+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fe024876-9ab7-4d40-b221-1d7f0e02ccab", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.89 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "16 Projects often use multiple turbine types.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We use the ERA5-Land database.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:15.592+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3049df4d-c040-43bf-8026-72231e5f90da", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.57 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A second problem with the weather station data is how frequently readings are missing. For the subset of weather stations that are nearest to at least one of the wind farm sites, there is only enough information to determine the wind speed and air density for 5.1% of hourly readings between 1990 and 2019.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:15.592+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4146fe22-c47c-4f05-adf7-6c1c683826d4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "reach a weather station (Figure A3, left panel). Only 5% of wind farms are located within 10 km of a weather station. In some instances you'd have to travel over 100 km. The average distance is 34 km.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:15.592+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "47da9ded-bd81-4c3e-acb7-a7506aeeb9ce", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.67 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A third problem is that, when readings are available, they give reason for pause. Perhaps most conspicuously, there is a large excess probability of very low wind speeds, and nearly 20% of readings are exactly zero.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:15.592+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "85ddf718-a230-4cbd-816b-f93a8252c8e6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "17 These figures are only slightly better for the network of Indian weather stations as a whole. Only 8.4% of hourly readings between 1990 and 2019 contain adequate information.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Using our chosen turbine specification, we then obtain the power output from equation 6.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:15.918+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3761bfcb-6057-4f0f-a2b0-6d084a9a7307", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.49 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Finally, while turbines like the E-53 have a hub height of at least 50 meters... the ratio of wind speeds at heights k and l is related to the ratio of k and l by the following equation, vk/vl = (k/l)^1/7.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:15.918+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "41bc5209-7967-49ce-be13-b4213b26deb5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Reassuringly, weather conditions are so highly correlated at this spatial scale... (Spearman correlation = 0.996).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:15.918+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5db9fd35-46dc-4d1d-bbcd-6e19660fbca2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Auffhammer et al. (2013) warn that the precise timing of deviations of weather variables... 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The farthest one is 13.4 km away from a wind farm site.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:03:15.918+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "67bd1dca-8be5-44c0-9300-15dbab95f632", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.64 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This means that, were a wind farm developer to use the same data and methods... this extra adjustment provides no 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Connect the entire network of electrical substations to each other (by any method) and record the total edge length. 2. Append the wind farm sites for each project as unconnected nodes in the network, and then use a standard MST algorithm to add the set of edges of shortest length that creates a graph without any unconnected nodes. Record the total edge length of the augmented graph. 3. 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