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"text": "The Canadian economy started the year strong, but forward-looking indicators continue to point toward a looming recession before year-end. Persistently elevated inflation continues to erode private sector purchasing power, while rising interest rates weigh on consumer spending, real estate sector activity and business investment. In addition, the external backdrop is likely to be less supportive of Canadian exports, with the US economy also cooling.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:07:50.045+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "57f7e014-953c-498e-bac3-af8a3ee21295", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.8 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Core inflation remains stubbornly high, around 4%. We continue to anticipate moderating inflation toward 2% in 2024 but foresee the Bank of Canada maintaining a hawkish tilt through year-end given the disappointingly slow progress toward the inflation target. Given the resumption of the rate hikes in June, with the policy rate now at 5.0%, and the hawkish forward guidance, we don't discount the possibility of further monetary policy tightening in 2023. 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The impact of the Bank of Canada's aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle has yet to fully filter through to the economy, and with financial and credit conditions expected to tighten further, the drag on economic activity will grow.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:07:50.045+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8179bc81-2425-4857-b9b4-505a9e034050", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Real GDP growth: 0.5%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-24 16:24:00+00", "model": "or:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-340d-7338-acbf-13da28e7ba42", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.1, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: EY analysis", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The cross-country variation largely stems from differences in the economic structure. South European countries (Spain, Portugal, Croatia, and, to a lesser degree, Greece and Italy) will be among the best performing economies, as the tourism industry is returning to pre-pandemic levels. Their activity will also be supported by increasing government investment financed from the EU recovery fund.\nOn the other side of the spectrum, countries most reliant on the manufacturing sector (Germany, Czechia, Hungary) will see a full-year decline in GDP, as global headwinds, destocking and the pass-through from earlier increases in energy prices weigh on activity. These countries are also less likely to benefit from China's post-COVID-19 recovery, as the rebound has mostly been driven by domestic consumption and services sector activity, which led to less global spillover.\nIn 2024, GDP growth in Europe will accelerate on average as lower inflation supports real income growth though high interest rates and a gradual withdrawal of the discretionary stimulus provided in response to the pandemic and the energy shock will continue to weigh on activity. The manufacturing sector should rebound, as external demand gradually recovers and real income growth supports domestic demand. As a result, we anticipate that growth in Germany will reach 1.4% in 2024. At the same time, the momentum in tourism and government investment will fade, with Spain seeing GDP growth slow down to 1.4%. CEE countries will stand out as they return to their (much higher) potential growth, supported by quick disinflation.\nWhile historically high post-winter gas storage levels in Europe have significantly reduced the short-term energy security risk, the balance of risks to economic growth remains tilted to the downside.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:22:32.145+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "95a07b82-0f5a-4937-a3f2-c5b0e931f33d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Real GDP growth", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-24 16:23:50+00", "model": "or:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-340d-7338-acbc-d38427cf2826", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.94 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1. CEE includes Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. Nordics includes Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway. South Europe includes Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Source: EY analysis", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. Information about how EY collects and uses personal data and a description of the rights individuals have under data protection legislation are available via ey.com/privacy. EY member firms do not practice law where prohibited by local laws. 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This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, legal or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice. ey.com", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:07:57.341+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "46db00cc-e51e-4206-947b-6b9f2df65b6e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.7, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.3, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "image", "text": null, "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Illustration", "slug": "illustration", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe76-7772-a5ac-c0b7294d7615", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "illustration", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:07:57.341+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "694e31d0-2dc2-4063-9cc3-39707621cd66", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.28, "x": 0.67, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "About EY-Parthenon\nEY-Parthenon teams work with clients to navigate complexity by helping them to reimagine their ecosystems, reshape their portfolios and reinvent themselves for a better future. With global connectivity and scale, EY-Parthenon teams focus on Strategy Realized – helping CEOs design and deliver strategies to better manage challenges while maximizing opportunities as they look to transform their businesses. From idea to implementation, EY-Parthenon teams help organizations to build a better working world by fostering long-term value. EY-Parthenon is a brand under which a number of EY member firms across the globe provide strategy consulting services. 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