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This special report is designed to help us get closer to the dynamics of populism and public opinion in a year which will be defined by many elections around the world.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:00.963+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1078e95c-2629-43ac-b359-a50b0f197096", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We interviewed 20,630 adults in 28 countries around the world between 22 November and 6 December 2023. 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Full breakdowns of the findings for each country, including trend data going back to 2016, are also provided.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:00.963+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7f99dbd9-d57c-448d-87e4-7d5e124ccd5a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Please contact Clifford Young for more information.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:00.963+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f1cb0ea9-2c17-49f8-bb94-29f78f579c30", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.07 }, "kind": "title", "text": "IPSOS POPULISM SURVEY", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:00.963+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7939fcf2-7d17-4f12-9bcd-16599eb44458", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 4, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 1, "name": "Setup", "beatId": "22045b65-6bf0-4f06-a3cd-8b5be2759e51", "matchId": "98169f5b-438a-479d-970f-3a473c127349", "beatType": { "name": "Setup", "slug": "setup", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-020e-7505-af9b-d9b9a4679bcc", "version": 1, "description": "Where the deck grounds the reader before doing anything else. 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Entering a new supercycle of uncertainty", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Infographic", "slug": "infographic", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe26-750c-9d7d-9f34e21324e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "infographic", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:02.231+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a7ecd15d-8df3-4686-82e1-f713b95714af", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.55, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.12 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "At Ipsos, we measure populist support using our “system is broken index” (See slide 22). We first developed the index in Latin America in the early 2000s, redeployed the index to the U.S. in 2015, and have been tracking this sentiment globally since 2016. Critically, the index captures discontent with the prevailing political establishment and the public’s willingness for leaders to “break the rules” in order to fix their country.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:02.231+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4e50626c-1d23-425f-8f35-0d291417b660", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.55, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.53 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Take, for example, the relatively high percentage of foreign-born people living in the U.S. right now. Politically, former President Donald Trump has taken advantage of these changing demographics by blaming the U.S.’ problems on the influx of immigrants. Here, within a given opportunity structure, groups like immigrants, elites, experts, and ethnic minorities are blamed for the problems facing the nation. The specific populist target will depend on the context and country. But the “blame game” is the hammer of the populist toolbox.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:02.231+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "66132b4e-6e57-4fac-89fc-d8b44de465bd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.55, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.42 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Typically, we see long-term economic and demographic change as the driving forces behind populist sentiment.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:02.231+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dbe7d4c1-b2e4-4bcf-afbb-81bd22a59e6c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "MEASURING POPULIST SUPPORT", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:02.231+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2661bae4-7a9d-4267-b0fd-bffed72989c7", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Scenario planning", "slug": "scenario-planning", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Time horizon ≥12 months · ≥2 high-impact uncertainties that cannot be expressed as probability distributions · top two uncertainties roughly independent · team commits to revisit every 12–18 months. 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Most respondents in Türkiye (77%) say their country would be stronger if it stopped immigration, while Japanese (16%) and South Korean (19%) respondents were the least likely to agree.\nA plurality in all countries feel that the \"elites\" in their country make decisions based on their own interests over the needs of the of the rest of the people in their country, levels that are highest in Hungary (69%) and Argentina (67%).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:02.243+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "10aad955-e900-4b43-a64f-d7ea12a6d2f9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.65, "w": 0.24, "x": 0.38, "y": 0.27 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "System is broken\nGlobally, three in five say the system is broken\nA plurality of respondents (57%) across the 28 countries surveyed feel their country's society is in broken, with the exception of Singapore (27%). These levels are highest in South Africa (76%) and Sweden (73%).\nA majority of respondents in almost all countries say their country needs a strong leader to take the country back from the rich and powerful (63% on average). A majority in all 28 countries (67% on average) also believe the main divide in their society is between ordinary citizens and the political and economic elite.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:02.243+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5b6cd87d-de41-49f3-88f0-07ed306fb78b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.65, "w": 0.24, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.27 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Country in decline\nAcross 28 countries, two in three say their country is in decline\nOn average across each of the 28 countries, a majority feel their country's society is in decline, levels that are highest in South Africa (72%), the Netherlands (71%) and Sweden (71%).\nIn countries with major elections, Great Britain saw an 11-point increase in this sentiment from 2021 (64% in 2023 vs. 52% in 2021). 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This sentiment has had a majority leaning since 2016. The building blocks of populism are alive and well in 2024. When it comes to select elections this year our survey shows similarly strong tendencies towards populist and anti-system attitudes. Global citizens have lost faith in their political systems. \"Traditional parties & politicians don't care about people like me\" is a case in point. Large majorities in Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, India, the U.S., and the UK all agree with this statement. Strong also believe there is a need for a strong leader to fix their country. 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Supermajorities in Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, India, the U.S., and the UK believe the government should increase spending on infrastructure, education, healthcare, public safety, create jobs and reduce poverty. Populists are against the prevailing political order, not large, robust government.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:04.421+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "24b50f76-df05-440e-b34a-db3ca765c5f3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.12 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Anti-establishment sentiment has been shown to correlate with varying forms of social and political disorganization. This can run the gambit from a breakdown of political norms to violations of constitutional principles, including electoral interference.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:04.421+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "be209b68-bf9b-403f-b920-35489db2925f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Large majorities or pluralities in many countries are suspicious of elites, experts, and immigrants. All these groups are potential scapegoat targets for anti-system, populist leaders. For example, consider “experts.” There are large majorities in Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, India, the U.S., and the UK who view experts in their countries with suspicion. Strong pluralities to majorities in these countries also agree that immigrants should be prohibited from holding a job under certain circumstances. Again, examples of the “other”—a populist ploy—can be found throughout our survey.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:04.421+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e9c79757-8ef4-4112-9947-528fca0d35d7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.75, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "See slide 26 for details", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Required for argumentative arcs." }, "evidence": "The survey highlights various complications, including the perception that society is broken and the divide between citizens and the elite.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": null, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 11, "type": "setup", "function": "establish_context", "rawType": "country_insights", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "country_insights", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Country insights", "slug": "country_insights", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-0e8d-7722-b4f8-bcbe32cb77b7", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "establish_context", "functionCanon": { "name": "Establish context", "slug": "establish_context", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1314-74e6-9074-d213dc0bdcdf", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 61, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 1762, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": null, "elementsJson": [ "paragraph" ], "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:06.113+00", "seconds": 6.935, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-5e87-7479-8208-0c7d42da1d6e/11", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-5e87-7479-8208-0c7d42da1d6e", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-5e87-7479-8208-0c7d42da1d6e#slide-11", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-5e87-7479-8208-0c7d42da1d6e.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "That said, a sweep here would strengthen the anti-system movement globally—a check on prevailing establishment politics.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-24 15:49:16+00", "model": "or:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-22fc-75bd-8fb9-5433574be1e4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.12 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Anti-system sentiment has been relatively constant among Americans since 2016. Here, Trump captures the prevailing zeitgeist as the champion of a broken country. Biden, in contrast, is the quintessential establishment candidate. Which worldview will prevail? Establishment or anti-establishment? We will see.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:06.113+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0469bd1b-46b7-413b-97fe-47c2f0d6b9e0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.75 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Finally, South Africa has one dominant establishment party—the ANC. But cracks are showing, and anti-establishment sentiment is high. The challenges more than likely will come from within the party. We are keeping a special eye on the unique way that anti-system sentiment might manifest itself in South Africa.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:06.113+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "283a18af-1cee-4af9-97c3-5b3492a507c4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Similarly, anti-system governments in Mexico, Indonesia, and India all are attempting to stay in power. To this end, high levels of anti-system sentiment in these countries reinforce such politics. Modi in India, Subianto in Indonesia, and Sheinbaum in Mexico all are favored to win. But elections are more than just attitudinal leanings. Other mechanisms, like the economy, matter. That said, a sweep here would strengthen the anti-system movement globally—a check on prevailing establishment politics.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:06.113+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2cd00ada-5307-47aa-8be0-2c4103adab0f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.54 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In contrast, the UK has a general election later this year. After a rallying-around period during the pandemic, there has been a steep increase in those who feel the country is in decline, with concerns spanning the economy, public services, and immigration. At the moment, Labour is taking advantage of this time-for-change sentiment but is not backed by a lot of public enthusiasm. An establishment party will win in the UK this year against the backdrop of strong anti-system sentiment.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:06.113+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c9fcc4db-8db3-4fb6-a406-38848caf66de", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "SPOTLIGHT ON: COUNTRY SPECIFICS", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:06.113+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7eeec28a-f887-44c6-9369-153c36c6a8f4", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 12, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 5, "name": "Complication", "beatId": "b145f430-7264-43f9-ac81-1c97c268c735", "matchId": "98169f5b-438a-479d-970f-3a473c127349", "beatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. 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In some countries, anti-establishment governments have a good chance of staying in power.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-24 15:49:19+00", "model": "or:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-22fc-75bd-8fb9-c126098a6be2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.8, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.56, "y": 0.1 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Ipsos Quick Take report cover", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:18:02.211+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "73e03b27-dd8c-4980-bac9-4fce65c27ef5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.7, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "2024 will produce a wide-variety of electoral outcomes. In some countries, anti-establishment governments have a good chance of staying in power. In others, we can expect a battle between the establishment and anti-establishment.\n\nThe U.S. is the classic case of this. Countries like Germany, with its EU parliamentary and district elections this year, will similarly see establishment and anti-establishment candidates face off with uncertain consequences.\n\nFinally, some, like the UK and South Africa, have strong establishment inertia—Britain with its two historical parties and South Africa with the traditionalist party, the ANC. How will anti-establishment fervor show itself across these contexts? It’s difficult to say. 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