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We would also like to thank Abhishek Goel for his significant contribution to the MGFI article again this year.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:30.889+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2437d6d8-b7cb-492e-9f83-a922577e903f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.125, "w": 0.635, "x": 0.058, "y": 0.328 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A special thanks to all members of The Business of Fashion and the McKinsey communities for their contributions to the research and participation in the BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion 2025 Consumer Survey, especially the many industry experts who generously shared their perspectives during interviews. In particular, we would like to thank Carlos Casado, Michael Kliger, Patrice Louvet, Santiago Poveda, Joe Preston, Nandita Sinha, Nikhil Thukral, Illya Symonenko, Libby Wadle and Jennifer Wong.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:30.889+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5594bcfe-b88e-4210-9bca-a242b7df6b7f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.025, "w": 0.635, "x": 0.058, "y": 0.895 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We’d also like to thank Marie Victoire de Bascher for the cover illustration.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:30.889+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b44fc7d8-2fce-4b73-9a72-7dab76be5e74", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.635, "x": 0.058, "y": 0.622 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We would like to thank the following McKinsey colleagues for their special contributions to the report creation and in-depth articles: Amine Abidi, Kari Alldredge, Sarah André, Ugo Apuzzo, Magdalena Balcerzak, Pamela Brown, Tiffany Burns, Inés Casanovas, Becca Coggins, Sandrine Devillard, Adarsh Dhingra, David Fuller, Antonio Gonzalo, Brian Gregg, Kenza Haddioui, Holger Harreis, Gerry Hough, Julian Hügl, Daniel Hui, Patricio Ibáñez, Nikola Jakic, Jonatan Janmark, Sajal Kohli, Franck Laizet, Nikolai Langguth, Ray Liu, Lucrezia Luti, Clarisse Magnin, Karl-Hendrik Magnus, Siddhant Malhotra, Apurva Misra, Alexandra Mondalek, Jessica Moulton, Olga Ostromecka, Gizem Ozcelik, Lauren Pak, Emily Reasor, Roger Roberts, Kelsey Robinson, Amaury Saint Olive, Carlos Sánchez Altable, Alice Scalco, Jennifer Schmidt, Alexander Silver, Sven Smit, Nadya Snezhkova, Marie Strawczynski, Rickard Ström, Wiktoria Szulcik, Corinne Teschner, Alexander Thiel, Martha Torres, Yasufumi Tozuka, Lei Xu, Bruce Xia, Chenan Xia, Liann Wu, Rebecca Zhang.", "attrs": null, "canon": { 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A long-feared cyclical slowdown has arrived. Consumers, scarred by the recent period of high inflation, are increasingly price sensitive. There is also the surprising rise of dupes, the acceleration of climate change and the continued reshuffling of global trade. Regional differences, which came into focus in 2024, will become even starker in the coming year.\n\nIn short, the negative environment predicted by many in the fashion industry this time a year ago has now manifested. There is still growth to be found, but economic uncertainty, geographic disparities as well as shifting customer behaviour and preferences mean seizing it will require navigating a maze of compounding challenges at every turn.\n\nConsequently, 2025 is likely to be a time of reckoning for many brands. The upshot is that there is still opportunity to be found for brands that move nimbly and are quick to adapt to upheavals in a chaotic marketplace.\n\nSluggish Growth Continues\nJudged purely by the topline, the fashion industry’s outlook for 2025 appears to be a continuation of the sluggishness seen in 2024: revenue growth is expected to stabilise in the low single digits. While luxury has led in value creation in recent years, the McKinsey Global Fashion Index forecasts that in 2024, it is non-luxury that will drive the entirety of the increase in economic profit for the first time since 2010 (excluding Covid-19).\n\nFashion leaders polled in our annual BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion Executive Survey were just as pessimistic as last year. Just 20 percent expect improvements in consumer sentiment in 2025, while 39 percent see industry conditions worsening.\n\nThe geographic drivers of revenue and economic profit are also undergoing historic shifts. In particular, the industry will benefit from falling inflation and increased tourism in Europe, the resilience of high-net-worth individuals in the US and new growth engines in Asia to counteract uncertainty around consumer spending in China, which is still recovering from the pandemic. 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This coming year may see mass online marketplaces experience similar disruption; most have seen their share prices plummet from pandemic highs.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:32.88+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2ab8619e-a5a3-4504-8b27-3484497c97db", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.28, "x": 0.36, "y": 0.07 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Brands are also reevaluating which consumer cohorts to pursue. While the fashion industry has historically prioritised younger shoppers, the \"Silver Generation\" of over-50 customers is growing as a proportion of the overall population.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:32.88+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "37e2189e-933f-4f2d-b803-6e464716fc6c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.28, "x": 0.36, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Not all brands are equally adept at making these pivots. Often, it is newer, \"challenger\" brands, unburdened by historic conceptions about products, stores and customers, that are coming out on top.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:32.88+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "449fe7ce-2cfd-44a9-af04-f1ff2dc4ca2b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.28, "x": 0.36, "y": 0.62 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "These supply chains will need to become more agile, with companies making efforts to reduce excess inventory and minimise the risk of shortfalls. Margin pressures, as well as pressures from governments around the world to reduce emissions.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:32.88+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "52c4470c-7df4-49e7-aa84-039104ebf468", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.28, "x": 0.36, "y": 0.43 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Next year, ongoing shifts in global trade must also be monitored and anticipated for their impact on sourcing. 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Domestic demand is also robust, with Japanese customers making up a significant portion of luxury sales.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:35.122+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "333474c3-441a-42d1-9414-08c21557c563", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.37, "y": 0.91 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: McKinsey Fashion Growth Forecasts 2025", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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To achieve the right balance between global and local elements, companies should consider building local teams in focus markets, particularly in branding, marketing and communications functions where strategies can vary considerably by region.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:43.772+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "79c550f3-4b0a-41a6-b5d6-71840a03d36a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Cater to local consumer preferences by creating special collections, altering product dimensions and adjusting pricing architecture. However, brands will need to ensure that styles do not diverge too far from their international offerings, otherwise they risk diluting global brand image.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:43.772+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9d0914fb-6360-4065-b3b6-3c2a5ccf40f7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.43 }, "kind": "list", "text": "In China, consider direct-to-consumer and owned online propositions. Owned online channels have gained significant traction since 2020 due to declining offline traffic and rising customer acquisition costs in e-commerce marketplaces. 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This approach is key to enticing local customers, particularly in luxury, where concierge-style strategies known as gaisho target VIP shoppers. 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This will be particularly relevant in India, where local brands have strong market share. High apparel import taxes and difficulties in last-mile delivery can also be challenging for international brands without strong local capabilities.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:43.772+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d7d05572-cacc-4152-83b7-10e0fcad2124", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "list", "text": "In India, partner with local online marketplaces. Limited real estate availability and last-mile logistics, especially in tier-two and -three cities, make partnering with local online marketplaces key to reaching consumers. E-commerce retailers like Flipkart-owned Myntra have become a key partner to international brands in India. H&M, for example, sells on the platform in India, while in all other markets it only sells through owned channels.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:43.772+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f35ff2de-c8a8-46f5-9075-658289e0b44d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Tailor international brand product portfolios and supply chains to better serve local 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Earlier this week, we opened a new store in Shenzhen. It's a really modern take on the Ralph Lauren experience, which fits nicely in Shenzhen. I don't know that we could do that on Madison Avenue.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:43.284+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1175e898-a094-4194-a9ea-9d86a5d720a3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.07 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "How have stores evolved over the course of this elevation project compared to say, five or six years ago?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:43.284+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5c29f8a4-20c1-431d-ae53-bec88e13a8b2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We actually don't do fashion shows. 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You will have seen these endless-aisle screens where you can have access in our store to now the entire range. We want people to be able to tap into our full lifestyle. We don't just sell denim. We don't just sell handbags. You want to buy a sofa? 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While Shein and Temu pose a challenge... 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Fast-growing challenger brands are now expected to make up 57 percent of the sportswear segment’s economic profit, nearly tripling since 2020. Investors continue to be bullish on challenger sportswear brands, expecting their growth trajectory to be steeper than incumbents. Publicly traded challengers have seen significant share price gains from January through September 2024.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:46.271+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b7db6f23-b22d-4057-a2e8-36f32b9fe0a1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "list", "text": "EXECUTIVE PRIORITIES: Invest in product innovations, both in core franchises and when expanding into new categories. Product remains king. Double down on product marketing to convey the benefits of the innovations. It has become even more important to deliver sharp messages on specific product novelties to customers. Build partnerships with ambassadors at both macro and micro levels. Secure emerging athletes early, leverage celebrities for brand storytelling and tap into local communities for authenticity. Develop a clear distribution strategy with direct-to-consumer channels to drive engagement and storytelling, while strategically using retail channels to maximise reach and profitability.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:46.271+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f4515810-bdf4-44e2-888c-2f704cc82b03", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "economic profit share: 57%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-24 16:12:07+00", "model": "or:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-2e38-7248-a644-5248cbbfcd65", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.12 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Challenger brands are forecast to generate over half of the sportswear segment’s economic profit in 2024, up from 20 percent in 2020. This means the battle between challengers and incumbents in the growing sportswear market will likely intensify. To gain market share, brands will need to develop innovative products and use the right ambassadors and channels to activate unique brand stories.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:46.271+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "50baff7b-d5e2-401b-9c65-ea438b07b88e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.08 }, "kind": "title", "text": "08. Sportswear Showdown", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:46.271+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ee598a77-5c07-41d5-8641-daa828dcbd99", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive-summary", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-4b63-72d5-9734-da757d91ca61", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A condensed view of the entire argument on a single slide / block.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "7ed9a31f-bf98-4627-8804-8a8cb9d66b49", "evidence": "EXECUTIVE PRIORITIES: Invest in product innovations, both in core franchises and when expanding into new categories.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:38:27.089624+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 100, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 154, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 20, "name": "Solution (Provide relief)", "beatId": "54b19f34-d2fb-4a44-bbd4-baec035a1a11", "matchId": "2ce4df2e-4720-43af-a6c9-9cc83095a85e", "beatType": { "name": "Solution (Provide relief)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-solution-provide-relief", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0fee-73e9-9ae5-799c7f3895cd", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document provides solutions and recommendations for fashion brands to address these challenges and succeed in 2025.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Resolution", "slug": "resolution", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-045d-703b-8dd7-e92aba3ba91b", "version": 1, "description": "How the deck ends. 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"active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-24 16:12:06+00", "model": "or:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-2e38-7248-a644-0cba47c8c03b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In 2024, challenger sportswear players — such as Deckers (owner of Hoka) and Asics — are expected to create over 50 percent of the segment's value, surpassing incumbent sportswear brands known as the \"Big Four\" (Nike, Adidas, Puma and Under Armour) in economic profit for the first time, according to the McKinsey Global Fashion Index.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:22:54.295+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "61baeacc-b3dc-44af-8a3f-c00fc2facf44", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.83 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "a. Economic profit (EP) is a measure defined as currency-adjusted Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes (NOPLAT) minus capital charge (WACC, multiplied by invested capital), reflecting the economic value created from operating activities and investments. b. Challengers, which include Deckers, Amer Sports, Wolverine, Fila, Lululemon, Skechers, Li Ning, On, Columbia Sportswear, Asics and Anta Sports, reached over 25 percent of market share in 2018. Amer Sports and On included from 2020, based on data being publicly available, having listed in 2024 and 2021 respectively vs rest of data set. c. Incumbents are classified as brands that generated over $5 billion in revenue in 2018, including Nike, Adidas, Puma and Under Armour. These brands, known as the \"Big Four,\" had reached peak year-on-year growth before 2018, maintaining a strong presence across multiple categories at the time. 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The average share of fashion brands' assortments on discount increased 5 percentage points in the first half of 2024 compared to the year prior. 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While over-stocking has been the preferred option to maximise sales, there are further sustainability considerations that may impact this strategy in 2025, including regulation and self-imposed emissions targets. In July 2024, the EU approved the Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation, which will require fashion companies in the EU to report on unsold textiles starting in 2025 and will make it illegal to destroy unsold products in early 2026. Similarly, in August 2024, California became the first US state to approve the Extended Producer Responsibility programme for textiles, requiring apparel players to submit a plan for collection, repair and recycling of goods by July 2030. 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The basic need we don't think goes away.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-24 16:12:21+00", "model": "or:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-2e38-7248-a649-070bc8635701", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.26, "x": 0.058, "y": 0.205 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "I will tell you our perspective: First and foremost, it's not that you need to be profitable, it's that you need to have a very strong profit formula in the business. We look at that in terms of gross margin. You need to be able to understand 'why does the business command that gross margin and can it continue to do that?' In other words, does the brand have pricing power, and if so, why and how.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:27:00.067+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "13a0a76b-8d3c-4b85-9eb6-d020afced2b9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.26, "x": 0.282, "y": 0.145 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Second, the ability to be able to define and be true to your DNA. There are great brands in fashion who are building a beautiful product, but that product isn't necessarily tied into the DNA of the brand, so consumers have a difficult time identifying how this fits in with what you are about.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:27:00.067+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "41acff48-8c33-40cf-8e27-fb8fcb41f22b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.26, "x": 0.058, "y": 0.625 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "What characterises winning fashion companies? 'Fashion' is a loaded term, because it can imply a degree of following trends, and trends can be very difficult to call. What wins in fashion in particular is a clear understanding of your consumer, who you're targeting and why you're targeting them, where you fit into their world and what [you are] offering them.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:27:00.067+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "44f25b71-c043-49e6-add4-178181b21d7d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.26, "x": 0.058, "y": 0.071 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Over the past few years, we've seen changes in what investors prioritise in companies. Profitability has become more important, for example. What will brands need to prove to investors in 2025 to win their backing?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:27:00.067+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "490747b6-dfc3-45bd-89ad-749ed05bf31c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.26, "x": 0.507, "y": 0.12 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In sportswear we've seen the rise of challenger brands successfully chipping away at the dominance of incumbents. Is that unique to sportswear, or is that something you see happening in other categories? In my opinion, it's lent itself well to sportswear because there's so much usage and the category was rising, so it's not atypical that, when you have that happen and you've got a few concentrated players, you'll have new propositions arise, because the juice is worth the squeeze. There's a market opportunity. In other categories where you haven't seen that happen, it's more because, rightly, people are asking, 'Is the effort worth it? Is there enough tailwind in those subcategories?' If we were to look across other spaces, luxury and non-luxury, certainly at beauty and personal care, you'll see similar trends.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:27:00.067+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4d40689a-24c2-4fa0-aacb-b0f0fe7147e1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.26, "x": 0.282, "y": 0.355 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Luxury had been fashion's big value creator, but it slipped this year. Do you believe that's purely due to macroeconomic factors, or is the consumer's view of luxury changing? Depending on which cohort, there may be an indexing of spend that goes more towards experiences rather than product. In other cases, the dynamic is different. China is going through its first period of [its growth rate] and demand decreasing. As that's happening, the Chinese consumer is doing exactly what every other consumer does — they think about their balance sheet, and they are deferring whatever they can. At the end of the day, luxury has a fundamental place in existence. For millennia, people have thought about their place in society based on what high-badge products do in terms of conferring that. 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Today, cohorts of consumers are consuming media from such fractionalised sources that you've got these tribes that emerge, and we live", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:27:00.067+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dbf3812f-d7a4-40c6-8ac9-4a34c0c6f622", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.26, "x": 0.058, "y": 0.44 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The opposite is the watchout. How much of the brand proposition is sold on discount? Through what outlets are you selling it? As an investor, it's not just looking at profitability and EBITDA. 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Any time there are rate movements, it has the propensity to create a mispricing of risk. Sometimes a rise in rates can create opportunity, because businesses that otherwise are sound businesses end up being under-priced relative to their long-term potential. The converse is also true. As rates come down, the biggest risk we see is a tendency to paint everything with the same brush. Separating what's truly unique and differentiated from what is otherwise a rising tide and category, that's where the science comes in. We would look at this rate environment and say, generally, that's going to be good for investment. The watchout is you've got to be able to separate the wheat from the chaff.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:53.651+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1cbba5f7-7c53-43b1-82f1-f090d3d3b149", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.4, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.07 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "in a world where technology has enabled brands to find and activate these tribes in a cost-efficient fashion, in digital in particular. So you can build a brand cost-effectively, there's a virality to the brand because you've got endorsements from existing customers and you can expand the brand to a level amongst these tribes in ways you couldn't before. What On has done against Nike in that space is a good example. It still has relatively low awareness but very strong traction amongst a particular consumer [demographic].", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:26:53.651+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9169490c-dbfb-4568-b5fa-e0eb403a20c4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.4, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Do you think we'll ever go back to the days of valuations like we saw with, say, Allbirds again, or are those days over? 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It's dynamic. On the positive side, there is a much more rational set of expectations between buyers and sellers now than three, four years ago. If you're a seller, you've been through some existential risk, including the pandemic, and maybe the world that you had and the valuations you had will never come back. You're more inclined to say, 'We should de-risk, when we can, at something reasonable.' That allows you to be able to transact between buyer and seller. We also see more strategic activity. For the right brands, there will always be interest. In time, you will see financial sponsors come back into this category as well. There needs to be more category health, more predictable demand and you need to have more market participants here. But it will come back. When you look to 2025, what are the big themes in consumer behaviour shaping the firm's investment strategy? You have to know which segment, which price band, are you talking about, because they behave quite differently. We tend to focus on the top 30 to 40 percent of US households. That's where the disposable income is created. You contrast that with Asia, where you've got a rising middle class powering the consumer economy. We will also continue to think very carefully around 'who is the consumer, where does this brand fit in, what's the emotional connection the brand has?' We're looking for things that are more than just functional in terms of why consumers buy. Everything has got to be supported by some sort of secular growth driver. We're not trying to time the economic cycle. Are there any trends or shifts you think are under-appreciated by the market? All cohorts of consumers, both older and younger, are increasingly valuing experiences over traditional asset accumulation. This is particularly true for the luxury consumer. We think about luxury travel, we've seen a lot of secular growth in those categories. Two, I think as you're building brands today, the days of business models that were monolithic around trying to scale in digital and single-channel, increasingly we're seeing the need for distribution, omnichannel growth and development. Wholesalers are great partners and distributors. They help build awareness. They valorise your brand for you. We're coming back again to that world. There are parts of luxury that haven't needed to do that, because they already control the distribution. 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