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Most major economic models have adjusted their 2019 forecasts downward. In fact, many economists see a slowdown as overdue. International trade tensions, political upset and uncertainty, and stricter monetary and fiscal policy all play out differently but with the same general result across regions: a more cautious outlook on global economic growth. All over the world, we have seen populist politicians exercise increasing influence over economic policy. There is a perceptible shift away from reliance on global governance structures designed to facilitate cooperation on pressing issues such as trade, climate change, and nuclear proliferation. 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Optimism among North America’s CEOs dropped the most sharply, from 63% to 37%, while the percentage signalling a slowdown in global growth moved from a negligible 3% to 28%. The result is a fairly even distribution of sentiment between ‘improve’, ‘decline’, and ‘stay the same’ with regard to global economic growth in 2019. That balanced response holds basically true for all the regions except Asia-Pacific, which has switched places this year with North America as the most buoyant when it comes to global economic growth expectations. 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What could throw that off, obviously, is ‘event risk’, particularly around China, not so much trade as leverage and idiosyncratic counterparty events given the amount of bonds issued out of China. I do think the psychology around trade is a risk. There’s a general environment of skittishness, and there could be feedback loops from that into the general economy.”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:42:44.891+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3f0ade01-c27a-4b06-88bd-70db4bb5b7d5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Global growth will be somewhat slower, but I don’t see a massive recession coming any time in the next 18 months. 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In general, fewer CEOs are ‘extremely concerned’ about any and all threats to their business, even as they demonstrate lower confidence in their own revenue prospects. CEOs are more mindful of what’s going on in their immediate purview as they await greater clarity on government actions and market conditions. Over-regulation, the perennial top threat since we began asking this question in 2008, maintains first place globally. It is joined in the top five threats by policy uncertainty, availability of key skills and trade conflicts. All of these are more immediate concerns tied to the ease of doing business within the economic infrastructure of one’s own markets. Top of mind among CEOs’ concerns is what dominates the headlines. Terrorism events dropped off in 2018, while trade conflicts and policy uncertainty rose to the fore. Government actions under new populist regimes have taken centre stage and are of more immediate concern than shifts in global temperature. 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The global tensions caused by the trade war between the United States and China affect growth in both mature and emerging markets. This will lead to a certain amount of slowdown. 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The global tensions caused by the trade war between the United States and China affect growth in both mature and emerging markets. This will lead to a certain amount of slowdown. 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Its lead has narrowed dramatically, collapsing the gap between it and the second most attractive market, China, which also saw its popularity fall.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:42:40.986+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6d2461f5-16b2-4167-8550-9220f9d376a3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.24, "x": 0.29, "y": 0.14 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "There is a clear substitution of ‘don’t know’ and ‘no other territory’ for the top markets, but the decrease in share of CEOs selecting the US as the top market for growth can also be explained by shifts in Chinese investment. CEOs there are diversifying their bets away from the United States (59% to 17%) and toward a broader array of markets. 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We’re a network of firms in 158 countries with more than 236,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, advisory and tax services. Find out more and tell us what matters to you by visiting us at www.pwc.com. This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. 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