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The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders.\n© 2025 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:59:20.499+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2a9ae536-ef63-41fe-8e3a-0f77d3c6a2f9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.4, "w": 0.55, "x": 0.24, "y": 0.14 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Foreword 3\nExecutive summary 4\n1 Introduction: Understanding competitiveness 6\n1.1 The competitiveness challenge 6\n1.2 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Fragmentation is expected to further accelerate by the end of 2025, and about one-third of employers globally expect geopolitical division and conflict to be a key driver of business transformation by 2030.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:59:24.251+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "076a2b43-8c99-4bad-979d-c015af90eb55", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.34, "x": 0.6, "y": 0.12 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "While the direction of future geopolitical developments remains deeply uncertain, it is already clear that competitiveness in this new era will depend not just on economic fundamentals but on the capacity to navigate an increasingly fractured international landscape.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:59:24.251+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "09801a1c-0575-4b9d-aa34-85fa2af89829", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.34, "x": 0.6, "y": 0.04 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Geopolitical strategy is now a core business competency. Companies that actively prepare for geopolitical risk (e.g. through supply chain diversification or investment and operational decisions) will be better positioned to navigate uncertainty and seize competitive opportunities.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:59:24.251+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4b2362df-abfa-4ec5-90dc-534d9cba5e74", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.34, "x": 0.6, "y": 0.47 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Evidence from past regulatory regimes shows that burdensome, anti-competitive regulation can impede long-term growth and prosperity. However, these effects are not irreversible. One estimate suggests that removing regulatory barriers can boost labour productivity by nearly 1.3% across developing economies.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:59:24.251+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "71eca8b1-feb8-411d-a499-5f65b1d3528d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.34, "x": 0.6, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The level of regulatory complexity varies globally. According to the latest World Economic Forum survey of global executives in 2024, compliance is perceived to be easier in Northern America, Oceania and South-eastern Asia, while executives in Latin America and the Caribbean, Southern Asia and Europe report more complexity (see Figure 3). Encouragingly, the overall trend is broadly positive – perceptions of regulatory complexity have improved in 91 out of 115 economies since 2018.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:59:24.251+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "87010fdd-9e7b-458e-937d-44e8c12370b8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.34, "x": 0.24, "y": 0.44 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This growing geoeconomic assertiveness has contributed to a historically broad-based spike in economic uncertainty. The Global Trade Uncertainty Index hit a peak on 10 April (more than 300% above its position at the start of the year). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that such a rise in uncertainty could increase public debt by as much as 4.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), constraining fiscal space as governments face growing demand for investment in security, infrastructure and climate resilience.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:59:24.251+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "97aec6b6-8a89-464b-9a06-7c01fb404a5a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.34, "x": 0.24, "y": 0.31 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A key manifestation of this shift has been a surge in discriminatory industrial and trade policy measures. Since 2022, governments have increasingly deployed tariffs, subsidies, export controls and restrictions on technology transfer to advance geopolitical goals. Nearly 80% of the 5,716 policy measures recorded in this period were discriminatory, tilting the global economy towards fragmentation rather than cooperation.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:59:24.251+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "caf594b8-fbbc-4b75-a36b-ba075fb27cad", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.34, "x": 0.6, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The regulatory environment is a key structural component of competitiveness. It encompasses the laws, rules and procedures that define how businesses operate and how resources are allocated – spanning areas from business formation to labour and sustainability standards, competition rules, financial oversight, and trade and industrial policy. Well-designed regulations can mitigate market failure, encourage investments, unlock innovation and steer societal progress. 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There is a risk of investment being reduced or delayed, resilience being eroded, innovation being delayed and supply chains being disrupted. These dynamics could undermine long-term competitiveness by crowding out forward-looking strategies and reducing the capacity to absorb shocks.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 18:59:24.251+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "eb2012eb-9a99-4c41-b31d-77158373d73c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.34, "x": 0.24, "y": 0.08 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "For decades, competitiveness was closely linked to global openness and integration. 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It illustrates how selected enabling and constraining factors may combine under each scenario to generate differing headwinds and tailwinds for sectoral output and competitiveness. The analysis builds on quantitative assessment and draws on consultations with senior industry executives. 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World Economic Forum. Future of Jobs Survey 2024. ... 28. European Commission. (n.d.). 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World Economic Forum. Future of Jobs Survey 2024.\n60. Ibid.\n61. United Nations Industrial Development Organization. (2024). International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics 2024.\n62. Shivakumar, S., Wessner, C. & Howell, T. (2024). Balancing the Ledger: Export Controls on U.S. Chip Technology to China. Center for Strategic and International Studies.\n63. European Commission. (2025). Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.\n64. Kaleb, A. & Lopez-Acevedo, G. (2024). Trade Restructuring: Assessing Labor Market and Welfare Effects. World Bank Blogs.\n65. Based on World Bank. (2023). World Development Indicators.\n66. United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2024). Data Hub.\n67. DHL. (2024). Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2025.\n68. Arvis, J-F., Rastogi, C. & Ulybina, D. (2024). Will a prolonged rerouting of ships from Suez trigger a new supply chain crisis? World Bank Blogs.\n69. Reuters. (2024). Regional challenges cost Egypt around $7 bln of Suez Canal revenues in 2024, Sisi says.\n70. Reuters. (2025). Egypt's Suez Canal offers 15% discount for big container ships to win back trade.\n71. LaRocco, L. A. (2025). Trump trade tariffs slump widens to 'nearly all U.S. exports,' supply chain data shows. CNBC.\n72. Barrington, L. (2025). China-US air freight tumbles on 'de minimis' tariff; airlines adjust routes. Reuters.\n73. DHL. (2024). Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2025.\n74. Krantz, R., Søgaard, K. & Smith, T. (2020). The scale of investment needed to decarbonize international shipping. Global Maritime Forum.\n75. Accenture. (2021). Logistics: Full service. Full stop.\n76. Accenture. (2022). Right path to digital transformation in logistics.\n77. JUSDA-EN. (2025). The Predicaments of Manufacturing Logistics Companies in 2025.\n78. DHL. (2024). Logistics Trend Radar.\n79. World Trade Organization. (2025). Global Trade Outlook and Statistics.\n80. Ibid.\n81. International Data Corporation. (2024). Worldwide Digital Transformation Spending Guide.\n82. IBM. (2024). Cost of a Data Breach Report 2024.\n83. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2025). OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index: Policy trends up to 2025.\n84. Del Giovane, C., Ferencz, J. & López González, J. (2023). The Nature, Evolution and Potential Implications of Data Localisation Measures. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).\n85. Globalscape. (2017). The True Cost of Compliance with Data Protection Regulations.\n86. World Economic Forum. (2025). 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