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The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:00:11.675+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0e23f8b4-66db-4a01-8258-d8653ff330a9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.13, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.24, "y": 0.79 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "World Economic Forum 91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744 E-mail: contact@weforum.org www.weforum.org Copyright © 2024 by the World Economic Forum", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:00:11.675+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "46b15815-fbe5-4ea0-8f00-eb8d57fdc7b2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.13, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.6, "y": 0.79 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, or otherwise without the prior permission of the World Economic Forum. 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57\n2.6 Crime wave 68\n2.7 Preparing for the decade ahead 76\nEndnotes 77\nChapter 3: Responding to global risks 85\n3.1 Localized strategies 86\n3.2 Breakthrough endeavors 87\n3.3 Collective actions 89\n3.4 Cross-border coordination 90\n3.5 Conclusion 92\nEndnotes 94\nAppendix A: Definitions and Global Risks List 95\nAppendix B: Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024 99\nAppendix C: Executive Opinion Survey: National Risk Perceptions 102\nAppendix D: Risk governance 112\nPartner Institutes 115\nAcknowledgements 121", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Numbered list", "slug": "numbered", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fcc0-7718-a284-a4250c805df2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "numbered", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:00:11.713+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7655b85e-2313-4b3b-a19f-258b068857cf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.135, "x": 0.239, "y": 0.035 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Contents", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:00:11.713+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "73bdf9c2-aa29-4417-b504-11c41ff3ce25", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 6, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 1, "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "beatId": "f26ea7a3-1a38-4b9b-8fbd-3172b7e88a8b", "matchId": "52e6b682-66e4-4124-b1e8-f4f4df89730a", "beatType": { "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0e78-74bb-b8f6-54348367a131", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document starts by providing an overview of the current risk landscape and identifying key risks.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. 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Contributions were collected from 55 colleagues across the World Economic Forum's platforms.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:00:12.351+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "17888302-3ff4-42a1-b6db-b476eb471c6a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Refer to Appendix B: Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024 for more detail on the methodology. 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The implications of these manipulative campaigns could be profound, threatening democratic processes.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:00:18.338+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3962bdad-216f-4538-8a87-b8f85c000d4a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.24, "y": 0.04 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Mistrust in elections", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:00:18.338+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "aa5fed61-b797-4922-a8fc-530abe2f88ff", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.47 }, "kind": "title", "text": "FIGURE 1.9 National risk perceptions in the context of upcoming elections", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:00:18.338+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "edf3bd6e-1d62-4091-a73a-8816920544c5", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 20, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 7, "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "beatId": "befb0372-5f52-47f6-84d6-7b5e80151904", "matchId": "52e6b682-66e4-4124-b1e8-f4f4df89730a", "beatType": { "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0f5a-71dd-bae7-8fadb0d09456", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document then highlights the severity of these risks and their potential impacts.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. 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The corporate debt default rate remains far lower than peaks hit during the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis (Figure 1.19).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:00:15.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "729badfa-79f4-4813-a1d4-6ec286cdebc4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.24, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Kraemer & Kugle, 2023.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The impacts of extreme weather may deplete available economic resources to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Increasing vulnerabilities, brought about by resource stress, conflict and increasing polarization, could expose societies and whole economies to crime and corruption. 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Worrying developments emerging today have the potential to become chronic global risks over the next decade.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:00:16.293+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8bd4b31b-4c12-40c5-8d69-191aa65bbf69", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.59, "y": 0.13 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "How these global risks evolve will reflect the global conditions that are slowly taking shape across multiple spheres: geostrategic, environmental, demographic and technological. Chapter 2 discusses a world that is being stretched beyond its limit, highlighting a series of emergent risks that are arising in the context of these structural regime shifts. A multiplicity of futures are conceivable over the next decade. 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Cooperation on urgent global issues, from an interrelated environmental crisis to high-speed technological advances, could be in increasingly short supply, requiring new approaches to addressing global risks. 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A foundation model is a large-scale AI model that has been trained on a large set of data that can be adapted to many applications, such as GPT-3.\n57. Allen, Gregory C., “China’s New Strategy for Waging the Microchip Tech War”, Center for Strategic & International Studies, 3 May 2023, https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-new-strategy-waging-microchip-tech-war.\n58. Haeck, Pieter, “With Apple’s iPhone 15, the EU wins the charger war”, Politico, 12 September 2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/apple-iphone-15-european-union-regulations-charger-usbc-lightning/#:~:text=proprietary%20Lightning%20solution.-,It’s%20an%20adaptation%20that%20Apple%20was%20pressured%20into%20after%20European,saying%20it%20would%20stifle%20innovation.\n59. 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Hogarth, Ian, “We must slow down the race to God-like AI”, Financial Times, 13 April 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/03895dc4-a3b7-481e-95cc-336a524f2ac2?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8#myft:notification:daily-email:content; Criddle, Cristina and Madhumita Murgia, “Big tech companies cut AI ethics staff, raising safety concerns”, Financial Times, 29 March 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/26372287-6fb3-457b-9e9c-f722027f36b3?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8#myft:notification:daily-email:content.\n64. H., John, “Migrating to post-quantum cryptography”, National Cyber Security Centre, 3 November 2023, https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/blog-post/migrating-to-post-quantum-cryptography-pqc; The White House, National Security Memorandum on Promoting United States Leadership in Quantum Computing While Mitigating Risks to Vulnerable Cryptographic Systems [Press release], 4 May 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/05/04/national-security-memorandum-on-promoting-united-states-leadership-in-quantum-computing-while-mitigating-risks-to-vulnerable-cryptographic-systems/; Vipra, Jai and Sarah Myers West, “Computational Power and AI”, AI Now Institute, 27 September 2023, https://ainowinstitute.org/publication/policy/compute-and-ai#what-is-compute-and-why-does-it-matter.\n65. SandboxAQ, “Safeguarding Healthcare: The Urgent Need for Post-Quantum Cryptography and Zero Trust Architectures”, 18 October 2023, https://www.sandboxaq.com/post/safeguarding-healthcare-the-urgent-need-for-post-quantum-cryptography-and-zero-trust-architectures.\n66. It has been argued that it will be very difficult to keep this level of progress in quantum computing secret. See: Parker, Edward, “When a Quantum Computer Is Able to Break Our Encryption, It Won’t Be A Secret”, RAND Corporation, 13 September 2023, https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/09/when-a-quantum-computer-is-able-to-break-our-encryption.html; Grumbling, Emily and Mark Horowitz (eds.), Quantum Computing: Progress and Prospects, Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2019.\n67. 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During the COVID-19 pandemic, the concentrated efforts of a few pharmaceutical companies made a difference for the global community. Supported by significant funding from governments, their innovations to develop a novel vaccine in record time was crucial to lowering death rates, demonstrating the immense potential of scientific breakthroughs on reducing the impact of health-related risks like Infectious diseases.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:00:28.537+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "21244c61-3429-4856-9091-bb6a76f41c72", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.24, "y": 0.42 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In some cases, the action of an individual or entity can be enough to provide a “breakthrough” development to address risk or to serve as the positive tipping point to an alternate “safe state.” These breakthrough endeavors are as equally relevant for preventing or mitigating the likelihood of risk as they are for lessening the impact.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:00:28.537+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "597383f1-4aa6-4eea-95b3-d52d1ea95a3e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.24, "y": 0.525 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Many breakthrough endeavors fall under the approach of Research & development (R&D), encompassing activities such as medical breakthroughs, new technologies or a novel approach to quantifying and governing risk. A prominent example of the latter is the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Association in 1988, endorsed by the UN the same year. 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