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In part, that is to sustain the sector's extraordinary growth and to satisfy the sea change in allocations to credit. But firms are also tapping into it because leveraged lending has become more crowded. How large is the addressable market? 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And since 2008, mid-market corporates and mortgage borrowing have increasingly moved away from banks. In all, banks' share of private lending in the US economy has fallen from 60% in 1970 to 35% last year, according to a new National Bureau of Economic Research paper (See Exhibits 1 and 2).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:13:16.004+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5b739354-da6d-40b2-ae5e-36e2d4cb6e46", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.41, "x": 0.09, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Private credit firms have enjoyed a \"golden moment,\" as Blackstone president Jonathan Gray put it last year, while banks have been on the back foot from the sharpest increase in interest rates in 45 years. 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"slug": "donut", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-0006-752c-9528-0fef476b8004", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "donut", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:13:16.743+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1aea02bd-af5f-4bac-97fc-b43f7d084c13", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.22, "x": 0.48, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Sub-donut chart showing $1.9 trillion non-bank segment split into $1.9T total and $200-300B private credit.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Donut chart", "slug": "donut", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-0006-752c-9528-0fef476b8004", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "donut", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:13:16.743+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "71f829a7-3e7d-4771-81c3-f38171d256e5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.09, "y": 0.73 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "Source: Oliver Wyman analysis and estimates, aggregated from a range of sources including, but not limited to: Federal Reserve Board (Z1 tables, G19, G20 and H8); Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS); Dealogic; ©2024 Conning, Inc., Conning Esoteric ABS Strategy Fact Sheet — used with permission; Finsight.com; Structured Finance Association; Boeing (Commercial Aircraft Finance Market Outlook); Secured Finance Network; Equipment Leasing and Finance Association; Morgan Stanley Research; CACIB Research; company reports and disclosures", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:13:16.743+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "473824a7-7bfa-4327-88d6-4b23a53f237a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.09, "y": 0.69 }, "kind": "legend", "text": "Estimated source of finance: Non-bank financing, Publicly securitized, Bank balance sheet, Private credit", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Legend", "slug": "legend", "status": "active", "canonId": "31361933-3d22-4c70-bbad-0801e9fffc0c", "version": 1, "description": "Color/symbol decoder placed adjacent to a chart or diagram." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:13:16.743+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b699d40c-6fe2-4985-962b-92157569ded5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "TAM: $5.5 trillion", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-24 13:37:39+00", "model": "or:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd951-d9ef-7323-a2e1-795dd2355073", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.39, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.11 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Other published reports provide limited visibility on (i) how the market size breaks down by asset class and (ii) the proportion of the market financed outside of banks and the public markets. One helpful triangulation point is looking at the 22 publicly listed firms that Morgan Stanley research covers that are active in private credit. These firms oversee approximately $250 billion to asset-based finance, and a further $220 billion to real assets (this includes non-US allocations), though definitions from player to player vary enormously. Another useful data point: One of the major private credit funds puts its global AUM deployed across (largely) asset-based origination platforms at approximately $130 billion. Of course, we could be wrong given the paucity of data.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:13:16.743+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c3b2cc9b-f0c9-459a-b69b-881162ede457", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.09, "y": 0.11 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Of the roughly $5.5 trillion US specialty finance market, we estimate that non-banks finance around one-third (See Exhibit 5). 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There is potential for richer spreads, less efficient markets, and the ability to gain an investment edge through research.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:13:17.314+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "95855149-6612-4e16-bc49-93dcf1ee7df6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.09, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Clearly the way each firm defines private credit varies enormously! The thoughtful and well researched recent note by the International Monetary Fund also highlights the asset class likely to materially exceed the best-known estimates.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:13:17.314+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a72c88b8-ecce-4289-bc6a-3c80e0b4409f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.43 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Ease of origination. For some assets, such as credit cards and trade/receivables finance, banks are responsible for a significant share of the origination... We expect to see increased re-tranching... or are selling tranches of risk.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:13:17.314+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "aae6e855-df0d-4268-8263-d9b628ad1cff", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.11 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As direct lending has become increasingly competitive, yields in many pockets of asset-based lending look more attractive compared with publicly traded bonds of similar risk.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:13:17.314+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d77e3264-4329-401f-ab9c-593ba9aca7bf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.21, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.09, "y": 0.29 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Most players argue that private credit AUM is larger than the often quoted $1.7 trillion AUM estimate. Based on our analysis... we roughly estimate private credit is at least a $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion asset class today.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:13:17.314+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dd1dc3c6-9c98-4cc7-ab7b-fc93939975f2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.55, "x": 0.09, "y": 0.91 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1 IMF Global Financial Stability Report, April 2024, \"The Last Mile: Financial Vulnerabilities and Risks\"", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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This is perhaps because they have established relationships with private credit funds...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:13:17.208+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6548cc40-01b3-4e83-9706-1681a4366136", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.09, "y": 0.57 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "What we find interesting from our conversations: To date, at least 14 major banks in North America and Europe have announced partnerships with private credit firms.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:13:17.208+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9984640c-f591-451a-970f-d475625e3e2f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.09, "y": 0.5 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1. As of April 18, 2024; 2. Largest banks in North America and Europe by billion dollars assets 2023. Source: Bank financials, industry press, Oliver Wyman analysis", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:13:17.208+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "35973a24-42e5-460f-a9e2-855930f305a0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.09, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Partnership, Date, Details. Citi/Luminarx, Jan 2024, Cinergy vehicle. Barclays/Blackstone, Feb 2024, Credit card receivables. Goldman/Mubadala, Feb 2024, Co-investment. KeyBank/Blackstone, Mar 2024, Forward-flow. Nordea/Industriens, Mar 2024, Private credit fund. 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lending portfolios to private credit firms, sometimes with a corresponding forward flow agreement. At least seven portfolio sales have been announced in the past year, and two since the beginning of 2024.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:13:17.582+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "048c7401-be5b-4360-b5b1-42fbc86c0b4a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.09, "y": 0.11 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "From an asset perspective, direct and leveraged lending is the strategic focus of 12 of the 17 private credit partnerships with banks (See Exhibit 11). 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All rights reserved. This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of Oliver Wyman and Oliver Wyman accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Oliver Wyman. This report is not investment advice and should not be relied on for such advice or as a substitute for consultation with professional accountants, tax, legal or financial advisors. Oliver Wyman has made every effort to use reliable, up-to-date and comprehensive information and analysis, but all information is provided without warranty of any kind, express or implied. Oliver Wyman disclaims any responsibility to update the information or conclusions in this report. Oliver Wyman accepts no liability for any loss arising from any action taken or refrained from as a result of information contained in this report or any reports or sources of information referred to herein, or for any consequential, special or similar damages even if advised of the possibility of such damages. The report is not an offer to buy or sell securities or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. 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With offices in more than 70 cities across 30 countries, Oliver Wyman combines deep industry knowledge with specialised expertise in strategy, operations, risk management, and organisation transformation. 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