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19:19:40.095+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0856a8dd-9af4-4d0b-b0ef-25e8d1777371", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.3, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Short-term up to 2025: Oil demand is expected to take two to four years to return to 2019 levels, depending on the duration of lockdowns and the pace of GDP recovery. 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Under an OPEC-control scenario, in which OPEC maintains its market share, we see a $50 to $60/bbl equilibrium price range in the long term, fueling 10 to 11 MMb/d US shale oil and 11 to 13 MMb/d deepwater production from pre-financial-investment-decision (FID) projects.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:19:40.095+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ed370e92-b212-4a0f-b103-7e68e9ff5549", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.3, "y": 0.67 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "If GDP growth recovers faster than expected, we may see a near-term price increase at more than $55/bbl. 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Even in an accelerated energy-transition scenario, we see need for new oil drilling by 2040. While most offshore-oil-producing regions will be under pressure in an accelerated energy-transition scenario, the sector will still require new production of nearly 23 MMB/d to meet demand by 2040. Demand in a 1.5°C-pathway will force shut-ins.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Numbered list", "slug": "numbered", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fcc0-7718-a284-a4250c805df2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "numbered", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:19:39.315+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "00eeaf16-21f0-4570-bf0b-7b572a312aae", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.17, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "list", "text": "1. Demand recovery to 2019 levels is in sight. Liquid demand is likely to return to 2019 levels by late 2021 or early 2022. Slower demand recovery would be due to a slow vaccination rollout or if COVID-19 control remains a potential risk.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Numbered list", "slug": "numbered", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fcc0-7718-a284-a4250c805df2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "numbered", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:19:39.315+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0835d7d0-f904-4549-8c5f-8a63403c3dc8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.17, "x": 0.23, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "list", "text": "2. Oil capital expenditures are unlikely to fully recover. Investments in oil capital expenditures are expected to gradually recover but remain below the pre-COVID-19 outlook. We expect a slow rebound in shale and offshore in North America.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Numbered list", "slug": "numbered", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fcc0-7718-a284-a4250c805df2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "numbered", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:19:39.315+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6f1ae926-75be-4e13-807b-143a360e05af", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.17, "x": 0.61, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "list", "text": "4. New oil drilling is needed to meet demand by 2040. By 2040, exploration and production companies need to add 38 MMB/d of new crude production from unsanctioned projects to meet demand. Most new supply is expected to come from offshore and shale resources.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Numbered list", "slug": "numbered", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fcc0-7718-a284-a4250c805df2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "numbered", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:19:39.315+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d2050d5f-0f89-4057-8301-8d4d026b22b2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.17, "x": 0.42, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "list", "text": "3. Long-term oil demand is exposed to large variations across all scenarios. After more than 30 years of stable growth of more than 1 percent per year, oil-demand growth slows in the late 2020s and peaks in 2029. 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