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International students impact.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:23:28.863+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "44675c0f-7ee7-45f2-a87a-c6dcff37d946", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Net Overseas Migration: 1.1 million", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-24 13:19:34+00", "model": "or:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd951-c7cb-728d-8e65-ee8fd626e6e3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Note: * The population forecast 'pre-COVID-19' is as forecasted by ABS, while the 'population forecast incl. COVID-19' has assumed the net migration profile from the Centre for Population estimates, including the impact of COVID-19. Source: ABS - Net Overseas Migration; The Centre for Population", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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A fall in the level of residential building projects occurred due to a tightening of macro-prudential and credit controls.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:23:28.869+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9735cdcd-9ebf-4308-903f-a7caabc3e1bb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Value of building and construction work: $5b", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-24 13:19:34+00", "model": "or:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd951-c7cb-728d-8e65-d052cc4c7b6b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.53 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"... I think the designation of construction as an essential service made a big difference. Less of an impact on productivity from social distancing than we thought...\" Head of Economics, ANZ", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:23:28.869+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0ff22144-202d-4608-8945-d8b12ad1e781", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"... We expect privately funded work to continue trending upwards, supported by a rebound in mining investment particular in WA...\" Senior economist, BIS Oxford Economics", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:23:28.869+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "60dbd8f7-fbf3-4e47-a335-d64ec3eff275", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.8 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"... While there are continued challenges in many sectors, industrial property is showing strong resilience and as a result construction actively remains comparatively strong ...\" Deputy chair, ACIF", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:23:28.869+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e1be9810-e4d6-4b03-8199-798bd2568c1c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "I think the designation of construction as an essential service made a big difference. Less of an impact on productivity from social distancing than we thought... — Head of Economics, ANZ", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-24 13:19:34+00", "model": "or:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd951-c7cb-728d-8e65-cd177edf7232", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Australian Construction Industry Forum - Australian Construction Market Report, November 2020; AFR", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Public transport use in Auckland experienced a sharp decline following New Zealand's nationwide lockdown in March 2020. Patronage recovered quickly after the lockdown restrictions were lifted but declined again following a second wave outbreak and second lockdown in August. In September, patronage was still in recovery phase and yet to stabilise. Buses have recovered more quickly than trains, unlike in Sydney. This may reflect that the different roles of rail in supporting commuter trips into CBDs against buses which perform local and city journeys across the day. 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Source: Auckland Transport (AT Metro patronage report); SBS; The Guardian", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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However, there is uncertainty around the permanency of such accommodation after restrictions ease. The Victorian Government launched a $150m package covering hotel accommodation for 2,000 homeless people until April, and a further around 9m to repurpose unused aged care centres to accommodate the homeless. 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There might be international student pilots, possible in SA at the end of November [2020], and we hope it will return to normal by late next year but it's very hard to say...\" Executive Director, Regional Universities Network", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-24 13:19:54+00", "model": "or:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd951-c7cb-728d-8e6e-3831732c86d0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Border closures have reversed the growing trend of international students, with both enrolments and commencements falling", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:23:38.136+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b3d33ccb-2f75-45b1-be1e-e4efaa60e46e", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [ { "metricRaw": "International student enrolments", "numberRaw": "5%", "numberKind": "percent", "actionTitle": "Border closures have reversed the growing trend of international students, with both enrolments and commencements falling", "calloutText": "Higher education and VET account for 50% and 33% of enrolments respectively", "numberScale": null, "numberValue": 5, "metricFamily": "other", "numberCurrency": null } ], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 142, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 61, "name": "Solution & Approach", "beatId": "2d19db26-f81b-4f22-b723-55fbb9be16fb", "matchId": "05ee323d-7502-4bc0-bbe6-de22994ec4c1", "beatType": { "name": "Solution & Approach", "slug": "consultants-gambit-solution-approach", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-071c-7161-9184-580fdac7a4f9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document provides recommendations for future directions and innovative solutions to address challenges and capitalize on opportunities.", "position": 3, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Turn", "slug": "turn", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0396-702b-ac2f-9901f8dd8b54", "version": 1, "description": "The pivot — solution proposed, catalyst introduced, decision made. 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Every year, Australia grants about 240,000 student visas to people overseas. Without these new international students starting courses, total numbers will start falling. ...\" Peter Hurley at Mitchell Institute, November 2020", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:23:41.617+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6a5de38b-6409-482b-997f-976f56d9d87f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.53, "y": 0.82 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"... As travel bans continue, this loss will continue to get worse. Every six months international students cannot enrol because of travel bans, 110,000 to 140,000 international students don't start their courses...\" Peter Hurley at Mitchell Institute, November 2020", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:23:41.617+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "df33d115-a044-42f2-96ba-d9476daeafc7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Every year, Australia grants about 240,000 student visas to people overseas. Without these new international students starting courses, total numbers will start falling. ... As travel bans continue, this loss will continue to get worse. Every six months international students cannot enrol because of travel bans, 110,000 to 140,000 international students don't start their courses. 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2020)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:23:52.53+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f0de6e83-7a53-498f-b5d1-357430a60a58", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.52 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Evidence of strong sales and installations in 2020 suggest the trend will continue into the future. The impact of household solar and other renewable energy generation will benefit consumers through increased affordability. However for generators this presents challenges: rapidly declining 'minimum operational (grid) demand' where generators may not be able to run at full capacity; as minimum operational demand lowers, new standards and system services are required to keep the power system secure and reliable.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:23:52.53+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "42176f65-11ab-4919-b65a-66da289c92e4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.27 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Average NEM operational demand between 6am to 6pm decreased in 2020 when compared to historical periods, with a c.7% decrease at midday compared to 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to further decrease peak demand.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:23:52.53+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6268a972-0714-4455-868c-f9dfa53877e2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.77 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Rooftop solar is not visible to AEMO in real time, and cannot currently be controlled or coordinated. However, it can be seen on the grid as the well-known 'duck curve' - namely, low demand in the middle of the day, with a larger ramp to the evening peak. This change impacts the demand profile, even on average demand days. 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COVID-19 is likely to impact on the drainage and sewerage segments of household water use. As with other utilities, the pandemic response catalysed a redistribution of demand to municipal or household water requirements. 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These assumptions are inherently subject to uncertainties, and actual results may differ from those projected. While L.E.K. believes that the assumptions and forecasts are reasonably based, L.E.K. does not provide any assurance that these assumptions are correct, or that any forecasts will reflect actual results. 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