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As of March 2026, Oxford Economics has downgraded growth projections for 2026 to just 2.6 percent, and uncertainty remains high. The Middle East is expected to be much more deeply affected. The United Arab Emirates could see a substantial near-term economic hit, particularly via tourism and aviation, but this could rebound quickly if regional conflict stabilizes. Saudi Arabia is projected to be comparatively less affected, as it can divert some oil exports via alternative pipelines and benefits from continued public sector-led investment that supports domestic activity. 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"componentId": "019dd951-c7c9-7288-bbbe-d74738c8140c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Beyond the top 10, South Korea jumps three spots from 14th to 11th, and Australia drops marginally from 10th to 12th, with investors citing their technological innovation (36 percent) and economic performance (29 percent) as the strongest reasons to invest in each, respectively. New Zealand maintains its rank of 16th, while Thailand (20th) and Malaysia (21st) re-enter the Index after last appearing in 2023 and 2014, respectively. India jumps two places from 24th to 22nd, with survey respondents (40 percent) overwhelmingly citing the talent and skill of its labor pool as the strongest reason to invest there. And Taiwan (China) descends just marginally to 24th from 23rd last year.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:25:44.055+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "17ca8c28-c691-4927-a025-e54d7cd51849", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.3, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.53, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Four markets in the Americas region are on the Index this year, the same share as last year. Following the United States and Canada, Brazil and Mexico both make notable jumps, from 21st to 18th and 25th to 19th, respectively. These increases reflect ongoing government efforts to bolster ease of doing business, a factor that investors value highly in both Brazil (27 percent) and Mexico (30 percent). To that end, in September 2025, the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services established an online single window to facilitate and expand foreign investment by centralizing investor documentation and services. And in July of last year, Mexico introduced the National Law for the Elimination of Bureaucratic Procedures, which is designed to facilitate faster and more transparent access to government services for both individuals and businesses.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:25:44.055+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8d57e4fb-e497-4238-8a58-130326b0bbd6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.53, "y": 0.37 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The Middle East and North Africa region retains two globally ranked markets: the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, both of which are in the top 10. The United Arab Emirates holds firm at 9th, while Saudi Arabia jumps from 13th to 10th. Economic performance continues to be the strongest draw for investors in the UAE (30 percent). The market saw robust output growth of 5.5 percent in 2025, according to Oxford Economics projections. Further, the market continues to make great strides in reducing regulatory hurdles and providing incentives for foreign investors. For example, to provide foreign investors with incentive-based financial packages, the UAE launched a $10 billion National Investment Fund in November of last year to support implementation of its National Investment Strategy 2031. And Saudi Arabia has gained remarkable momentum since first joining the main Index at 24th in 2023. Continued commitment to its Vision 2030 strategy, which aims to diversify its economy away from oil, is clearly appealing to investors and bolstering output growth. In December of 2025, net FDI inflows reportedly reached SR 24.9 billion (about $6.6 billion) in the third quarter of 2025, representing a 34.5 percent increase year over year. As previously mentioned, the rapid onset of the conflict in the Middle East is likely to weigh on the short-term FDI prospects for both the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. However, the strong economic fundamentals and infrastructure/technological assets in each could shield the markets from longer-term capital flight, depending on the duration of the conflict.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:25:44.055+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "be63bb08-52a5-409c-ad13-5d4d68bdb884", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.32 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Europe sees the second-largest share of the top 25 markets this year, with nine economies, two fewer than last year. 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"groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-24 13:17:10+00", "model": "or:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd951-c7c9-7288-bbbe-b1a54f448c5f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The most significant increase in net optimism is in Taiwan (China), which soars 20 points to 37 percent this year. Likewise, Germany jumps 10 points to 39 percent.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:25:44.219+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3e0736c4-088f-41e8-a6f9-88debf32def7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.2 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The United States, for example, sees a net optimism score of 26 percent this year. This reflects a striking 17-point decline from last year... New Zealand also sees a sharp decline, moving from 25 percent to 0 this year.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:25:44.219+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "450101cd-b0f4-45b1-a955-77cc7ce2e141", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.5, "y": 0.1 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "China, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudia Arabia lead our fourth-annual Emerging Markets Index for the third consecutive year (see figure 5 on page 11). Overlap between the global rankings and the emerging market rankings this year is significant and includes China, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Mexico, Thailand, Malaysia, and India.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:25:44.219+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6665d7df-54aa-4e2a-b948-a0a5748cb467", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.5, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "While the top five markets remain relatively stable this year, Thailand and Malaysia make a notable jump from 10th to 6th and 11th to 7th... Other markets that make noteworthy gains are Vietnam and Peru, rising from 19th to 16th, and 24th to 21st, respectively.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:25:44.219+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b57ca9dc-54d7-453f-b21f-df01e6f8e0b3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.6 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The United Arab Emirates, Japan, and Canada see the highest net optimism scores this year, at 42 percent, 41 percent, and 39 percent, respectively.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:25:44.219+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bc9f9bc0-9346-410c-9ac7-10f06996a4a9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.3, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.5, "y": 0.5 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Other markets see their rankings slide. India moves down from 5th to 8th... South Africa drops from 7th to 12th this year... 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value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-24 13:17:10+00", "model": "or:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd951-c7c9-7288-bbbf-1adc870dc3b5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.5, "y": 0.22 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This year, technological and innovation capabilities (18 percent) soar to the top of the list of most important overall factors to survey respondents in determining where they make their foreign direct investment. Efficiency of legal and regulatory processes and ease of moving capital into and out of the market tie for the second most important factor (14 percent), and domestic economic performance follows (13 percent) (see figure 9 on page 16). Last year, efficiency of legal and regulatory process and domestic economic performance tied (16 percent) for the most important factor for investors when choosing where to make their foreign direct investment, with technological and innovation capabilities following at 15 percent. Given the massive gains in AI technology and development over the past few years, investors clearly see value and growth opportunity in the field. This is evidenced by recent UNCTAD data indicating that data centers, which are crucial for training and running AI models, have become major recipients of global investment. 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When our survey was fielded, investors were most optimistic about the outlook for United Arab Emirates (42 percent), Thailand (39 percent), and Saudi Arabia (37 percent) this year. Last year, the United Arab Emirates, Saudia Arabia, and China took the top three optimism rankings. While the expansion of conflict in the Middle East may create headwinds in the short-term, the investor optimism for the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia reflect strong economic fundamentals in these markets and belief in the capacity for recovery over the three-year horizon. Thailand edging ahead of China into the top three in economic optimism could reflect investor enthusiasm about tourism in the market. Indeed, Bangkok once again ranks as the world’s top city for international arrivals (30 million) in Euromonitor’s Top 100 City Destinations Index 2025. And Thailand’s unemployment rate fell to 0.76 percent in Q3 2025, its lowest level since Q4 2014. 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correspondence, please email insight@kearney.com. A.T. Kearney Korea LLC is a separate and independent legal entity operating under the Kearney name in Korea. A.T. Kearney operates in India as A.T. Kearney Limited (Branch Office), a branch office of A.T. Kearney Limited, a company organized under the laws of England and Wales. © 2026, A.T. Kearney, Inc. 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